No extreme cold air exists across North America virtually ensuring May will be markedly warmer than April. However, typical spring-like volatility features seasonably cold air currently draining into the central U.S. which models agree will linger longest in the northeastern quadrant of the country during the next 10-days; focusing between the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this workweek, and the Northeast during the 6-10 day period. All models agree intensity of cooling in these regions mostly remains less than 10° below average at a time climatological high temperatures are greater than 70° in central-southern latitudes and are approaching 70° farther north. At the same time greater temperature fluctuation across the rest of the U.S. is forecast to average seasonal to slightly above average by early May standards; even as mid Atlantic region briefly peaks in the low 90s early this week (Tuesday), and the Southwest warms to the hottest temperatures yet this year midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) potentially exceeding 100° across the southern deserts of Southern California and Arizona (including Phoenix). Spring like volatility ensures this level of heat will be brief, but longer range model forecasts still indicate onset of far more sustained above average warmth by mid May, adding confidence to a summer-like end to spring in the majority of the western two thirds of the U.S. where drought conditions are most extreme.
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