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Long Range Forecast Summary

January 24 Update: Models trending stronger with coming weekend arctic air outbreak into the Midwest and East while the large scale pattern continues to evolve to generate more frequent Eastern cold air outbreaks in February while the West warms.

Cold airmass currently in the Upper Midwest (today’s high in Chicago mid 20s) moves into the Northeast Wednesday in a less intense (seasonal) form. However, by the weekend a stronger and longer period of modified arctic air will produce below average temperatures across more of the northeastern quadrant of the country (including the Northeast) this weekend through next Monday, Jan 30.

While early next week’s cold air outbreak remains transient due to the lack of Atlantic blocking, more frequent arctic air outbreaks are forecast to soon follow as models forecast the start of a well established +PNA pattern by late next week. This favors a more amplified Western ridge / Eastern trough pattern that ends the flow of mild air of Pacific origin into the Eastern U.S.

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