A moderately cold start to this week across the Northeast (7°-10° below average) will not last as all models resume above average warmth by Thanksgiving Day. The Plains and Midwest will also be seasonably warm for most of the week even as more frequent southern tracking Pacific storms eject out of the West. While models are uncertain in day-day precipitation focus east of the Rockies all forecasts remain devoid of a connection to arctic air which is a relatively mild temperature signal at this time of year regardless of clouds and precipitation. However, moderate below average temperatures can still occur when seasonal level Canadian air dives deeply into the Southeastern U.S. which is the biggest change in latest 6-10 day period model forecasts valid at the end of November into the start of December. While above average temperatures are forecast to return to most of the Midwest and East later in the 1st week of December, Canada is forecast to cool sharply below average and latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts are faster to dislodge this cold air southward deep into the Eastern U.S. during the 2nd week of the month. Magnitude of mid December cooling is far less certain but forecast confidence is increased most of December will be slightly-moderately cold across the Midwest and East, before conditions warm again potentially by the final week of the month.
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