Spring-like warm-up underway across the Eastern half of the country early this week is certain to be brief, as all models direct another unseasonably cold arctic airmass into the Plains on Tuesday (15° below average) which is certain to overwhelm the rest of the Eastern U.S. during the latter half of this week. Unlike recent arctic air outbreaks observed to quickly progress in and out the Midwest, South, and East over the course of 2-3 days, all models are nearly twice as long with midwinter-level cold air (4-5 days) set to linger in the East into the middle of 6-10 day period (Mar 2). Another fast warm-up is certain to follow late in the 6-10 day period but latest 11-15 day model forecasts have flipped markedly colder across the Midwest, South, and East. However, longer range 30-day MWA ensemble and CFSv2 model forecasts agree this March 4-8 cold air outbreak east of the Rockies will represent the final multiday period of winter-like temperatures of spring. Near sustained mid-late March warming east of the Rockies will be slowest over snow covered northern regions, but by late month seasonably warm temperatures should be well established across the vast majority of the U.S. to dominate the remainder of spring.
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