Computer model forecasts continue to trend warmer through the entire week ahead into the start of week 2 signaling the hottest and longest heatwave of summer across the vast majority of the Eastern half of the country. Latest forecasts are far more expansive with triple digit heat peaking mid-late week near 15° above average from the southern and central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile upper 90s in Chicago and mid 90s across much of the Northeast are forecast to straddle the end of the 1-5 day period and start to the 6-10 day period. Texas and the mid South are also forecast to noticeably warm as above average heat (including 100° in Dallas) quickly replaces rain-cooled daytime high temperatures in the wake of the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry lifting northward through Arkansas Monday. Extended range models are struggling greatly in the manner in which this extended mid July heatwave breaks down, but general consensus begins to cool the northeastern quadrant of the country at the end of the 6-10 day period. At this point the coldest model forecasts are discounted in favor of near seasonal temperatures through the 11-15 day period. Seasonably mild temperatures may extend into the 16-20 day period, but longer range forecasts of the MWA 30-day ensemble reestablish widespread moderate above average warmth to predominate the 1st half of August.
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