Summerlike heat is effectively over across the Great lakes and Northeast where near seasonal temperatures are forecast through most of this week. That is not the case farther South from Texas to Georgia where multiple days in the 90s (10° above average or more) linger ahead of the coldest air of the season to date forecast to arrive next weekend (Oct 12-13). Despite winter-like cold and snow focusing between the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest this week (20°-30° below average) , fast modification of this airmass ensures noticeable cooling reaching most of the South and East during the 6-10 day period will only reach normal mid October temperatures at best. Meanwhile most of the West (especially California and the Southwest) is already much warmer (80s-90s) than models previously forecast. This markedly warmer shift in the West compared to last week’s significant cold is considered strong indication this week’s winter-like cold in the north-central U.S. will also be temporary. However, mild temperatures resuming across most of the U.S. by the latter part of the 11-15 day period are also anticipated to be brief, as 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts continue to latch onto fundamental pattern change during the final week of October, setting the stage for a winter-like cold start to November across much of the Midwest and East.
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