Approach of intensifying Tropical Storm Sally through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and much stronger Hurricane Paulette toward Bermuda have radically shifted all model forecasts colder across the Midwest and East. Paulette is unlikely to directly impact the continental U.S. but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts Sally’s landfall at category 1-2 hurricane strength in southeastern Louisiana Tuesday, which is farther east than model forecasts. After landfall Sally is near certain to slow considerably near the central Gulf Coast generating multiple days of flooding rainfall through the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Models are far less certain with ultimate northward extent of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Sally, especially into the Northeast but by the end of the workweek overwhelm the region with the coldest air (more than 10° below average) for the longest consecutive day period observed since last spring. Late September temperatures have potential to plummet several degrees lower across the northeastern quadrant of the country than model forecasts more typical of mid October while greatest and most sustained above average warmth remains focused between the interior West and northern Plains. However, during the transition from September to October (16-20 day period) 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts spread warm Western air across the East in a mild coast to coast pattern anticipated to predominate mid fall.
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