New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
MWA Forecast Model and Lead Scientists
One of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR’s) primary areas of research is the development of computer models designed to improve our understanding of complex interaction between the atmosphere, Earth, and sun. These models, developed over the span of decades were originally designed to run on the largest (Cray) computer platforms. Among these are the Community Climate System model (CCSM) which consists of several stand alone components defining affects of atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice to the total climate system.
The atmospheric component, Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is a global spectral model that has never been run in an operational environment, except by our group. Recent technological advances enable the operational use of this model at a forecast time horizon of 30 days. In order to serve as an operational weather forecast model for daily use, software to ingest current atmospheric observations, and perform the initial ensemble member perturbations have been developed by Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook.
Pete Stamus has considerable experience with numerical analysis and the creation of products for forecasters and other end-users. During his 14 years with NOAA’s Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), he co-developed the Local Analysis and Forecast System, and with John Snook led its installation and use at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. Leaving FSL in 2000 Pete joined Foresight Weather, eventually becoming VP – Operations where he supervised both the development and daily operations of the Foresight modeling system. He has also worked on projects for the US Air Force, the National Weather Service (NWS), and NCAR Comet program.
Dr. John Snook worked as an applied research meteorologist with the NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory from 1984 through 1999. He participated in the development of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS), which is now a part of the NWS operational meteorological workstation, since its inception in 1987. John completed a doctoral program in 1993 at the Colorado State University while remaining full-time at FSL. He studied high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with an emphasis on local area applications, which provided the opportunity to incorporate a meteorological computer model into the FSL LAPS package. John received a NOAA bronze medal for efforts contributing to the successful implementation of a local-area NWP system to provide operational support for the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games. John moved to the private sector in 1999 to install numerical weather prediction NWP systems designed to meet client requirements in the utility industry and various other private and public sectors who require NWP services including the US Forest Service.
With acquisition of a set of new dual quad core servers, development and testing of the 30 day MWA ensemble forecast model are complete as of early spring 2010. Global upper level and surface graphical output is currently available and has been utilized in an operational mode in support of MWA 30 day forecasts in March 2010. Consistent model forecasts have verified excellently and effectively cut through the high level of error and noise exhibited in standard forecast model output. Soon numerical point source parameters for any city in the world will be available out to 30 days.
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June 5 - Long Range Summary
Canadian air which surged into the Northeast early this past weekend in a more intense form (10°-15° below average) than models forecast is strong indication additional lobes of cold air poised to frequently drain down the Eastern Seaboard in stagnant flow into mid June will also be colder than computer generated forecasts. At least general timing of cold air reinforcement through the Northeast into the mid Atlantic region is of improved consensus in recent model runs; with Wednesday-Thursday marking the next noticeable double-digit below average temperature drop, followed by another early next week (Jun 12-13) that could be the coldest of the June series. While far less of this unseasonably cold air will reach the Midwest last week’s hot 90s in Chicago are unlikely to return. The western extent of cold air outbreaks focusing east of the Appalachians will interrupt brief intervals of seasonably warm low-mid 80s across the Midwest with 2-3 day periods of slightly below average mid 70s, to average out near seasonal temperatures over several day time scales through mid June. Meanwhile the Southwest is the next coolest region relative to climatology until stagnant amplified flow can breakdown at some point during the 11-15 day period. As with all major pattern shifts models are highly uncertain with important aspects of change leading to volatile 11-15 day forecasts, but lower amplitude flow in itself almost ensures the core of greatest heat currently locked between the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains (mainly 11°-15° above average) will spread eastward in a modifying (weakening) form mid-late June. Modestly dry surface conditions which developed between the Midwest and mid Atlantic region in late spring set the stage for sustained slightly above average mid-upper 80s during the latter half of June in these areas, but wetter conditions already developing across most of the Northeast are a cooler (near seasonal) Eastern Seaboard signal into the start of July according to 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.