Dave Melita

Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.

As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.

Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.

April 8 - Long Range Summary

Exit of a slow moving late season winter storm (nor’easter) farther off the New England coast late this past weekend marks onset of noticeable warming, and effective end to the significant cold-biased pattern which predominated the Eastern half of the U.S. since mid March. Unseasonably warm temperatures peaking near or above 70° across most of the Great Lakes and Northeast (15° above average) early this week (Monday-Tuesday) will remain brief, before clouds and rain sharply cool daytime highs across the entire Midwest and East between seasonal and moderately below average levels during the latter half of the week (Apr 10-13) depending on uncertain model forecasts. Regardless of which model verifies the same widespread cloud cover and rain across the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. are certain to suppress overnight cooling, elevating minimum temperatures several degrees above average to still skew mean temperatures above average.  Meanwhile warmest U.S. temperatures are forecast across the Southwest late this workweek (Thursday and Friday) featuring mid 90s across the deserts (including Phoenix) which are about 10° above average and warmer than prior forecasts. Similar to modest midweek Eastern cooling another colder Southwestern rainstorm appears in all modeling next weekend (Apr 13-14), which later shifts into the East by early in the 11-15 day period (Apr 18). With minor cooler exceptions (mainly seasonal) all extended range models maintain this week’s warm-biased temperature range devoid of below average extremes into the start of the final week of April. Longer range guidance valid during the final week of April into the 1st week of May are not well aligned but appear to fully breakdown El Niño forcing and associated north-south temperature and precipitation gradients across the U.S. faster than previously anticipated. In this scenario a greater expanse of wet mid-late spring conditions include most of the northern U.S. limiting magnitude of above average temperatures to mainly single digits.


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  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398