Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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January 23 - Long Range Summary
As large scale pattern reversal continues to evolve models have latched onto stronger winter storms tracking coast to coast including an impactful Northeastern winter storm midweek. This winter storm is near certain to produce the most southern displaced snow in over one month between northern Texas by Tuesday to the southern Appalachians Wednesday, while drawing noticeably colder air into the Midwest and East much closer to seasonal midwinter levels. The coldest air focusing west of the Rockies during the coming workweek (10° below average or more in the Southwest), is still not of direct arctic origin. However, as pattern amplification peaks early this weekend (Jan 28) latest model consensus unleashes extreme arctic cold directly through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest at 20°- 25° below average intensity plummeting daytime high temperatures near zero and overnight lows into the negative teens. This is a colder for longer scenario than models indicated last week including well below average temperatures across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast during both 6-10 day and 11-15 day periods. Mild air is forecast to return to the central and Eastern U.S. early in the 2nd week of February as less intense cold air contacts into the northwest quadrant of the U.S. However, as 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts extend deeper into February latest runs return arctic air to the central U.S by Feb 20.
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