Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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December 4 - Long Range Summary
Mild temperatures by early winter standards across the vast majority of the U.S. during the 1st weekend of December represent early stages of a multi-week warming trend which recent model forecasts prolong deeper into late month. Even the Northeast which verified coolest in November is on track to experience only one additional modest cold air outbreak (3°-6° below average) peaking Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures skyrocket more than 10° above average (50s) by next weekend (Dec 9-10). This initial surge of late week Eastern warmth is part of even warmer Southwestern (80s) to central U.S. (70s) midweek temperatures that latest model forecasts only briefly interrupt with seasonal level cooling next weekend, before warming back several degrees above average early the following week (Dec 11-12). This 2nd surge of western-central U.S. warmth in mid December was nonexistent in model runs all last week, and more importantly includes all of Western Canada where prior forecasts indicated onset of prolonged arctic air transport. Most extended range models still gradually shift colder across Western Canada but later in December at a much slower rate which delays significant U.S. cooling until the final week of the month at the earliest. Even then intensity of U.S. cooling between Christmas week and early January appears limited (mainly seasonal) by relatively mild split jet stream flow typical of El Niño.
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