Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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April 22 - Long Range Summary

Unseasonably cold air in place across the majority of the Eastern half of the U.S. this past weekend will briefly moderate closer to seasonal temperatures after a very cold start to the day Monday featuring overnight frost conditions deep into the mid South and Southeast. However, a final surge of cold Canadian air forecast to focus more directly into the Midwest and East midweek has models shifting markedly colder (15°-20° below average) for a 1-2 day period Wednesday-Thursday along with some mountain snow in the Northeast. Late week pattern change is certain to effectively end cold air transport into the U.S. while directing less intensely cool Pacific storms back through the West. This will end the extended period of well above average warmth underway west of the Rockies into midweek, but periodic rain-cooled temperatures (mainly 7°-10° below average daytime highs) starting during the latter half of this week (Apr 25-27) will be far from extreme. As the West cools the warmest air yet this year will flood most of the Midwest and East generating near 15° above average temperatures more typical of late May or early June for several consecutive days during the 6-10 day period. Models are highly uncertain with timing, track, and strength of the series of Pacific storms once they eject east of the Rockies. However, rain-cooled Eastern conditions are near certain to remain weak with the 11-15 day period marking the 1st opportunity for multiple days of temperatures closer to seasonal levels, in an otherwise mild late spring pattern likely to be warmest (relative to average) across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. during most of May.


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