Observed Weather:
It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
Melita Forecast:
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
NWS Forecast:
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
Analysis:
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
Begin your 2-week free trial subscription to the MWA 30-day forecast newsletter and our proprietary computer generated 30-day ensemble forecasts. Email us to start today.
March 20 - Long Range Summary
Winter-like arctic air in place across the entire Eastern half of the U.S. will linger longest over the Southeast into early Tuesday at near 20° below average intensity where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings remain in place. Meanwhile the central U.S. is already warming above average and this warmer airmass will reach the Eastern U.S. midweek in milder southerly flow ahead of the next series of closely spaced Pacific storms lined up to move onto the West Coast at 36-48 hour intervals. The lead Western storm forecast to eject east of the Rockies midweek and the East Saturday will not tap into cold air nearly as intense as 20°-30° below average temperatures observed last week. However, very cold air by spring standards remains available over snow covered Canada to be tapped by the parade of coast to coast tracking storms to frequently cool temperatures across most of the Eastern half of the U.S. to at least moderately (7°-10°) below average levels starting during the latter half of this week. Several additional rounds of late season snow are also forecast across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. including a potential significant winter storm in the interior Northeast at the end of the 6-10 day period (Mar 28-29). More importantly all extended models prolong this active cold-biased U.S. storm pattern devoid of sustained above average warmth (or Southeastern ridging), adding confidence to continued delay of full establishment of spring-like temperatures across most of the Eastern U.S. into mid April.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.