Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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April 8 - Long Range Summary

Exit of a slow moving late season winter storm (nor’easter) farther off the New England coast late this past weekend marks onset of noticeable warming, and effective end to the significant cold-biased pattern which predominated the Eastern half of the U.S. since mid March. Unseasonably warm temperatures peaking near or above 70° across most of the Great Lakes and Northeast (15° above average) early this week (Monday-Tuesday) will remain brief, before clouds and rain sharply cool daytime highs across the entire Midwest and East between seasonal and moderately below average levels during the latter half of the week (Apr 10-13) depending on uncertain model forecasts. Regardless of which model verifies the same widespread cloud cover and rain across the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. are certain to suppress overnight cooling, elevating minimum temperatures several degrees above average to still skew mean temperatures above average.  Meanwhile warmest U.S. temperatures are forecast across the Southwest late this workweek (Thursday and Friday) featuring mid 90s across the deserts (including Phoenix) which are about 10° above average and warmer than prior forecasts. Similar to modest midweek Eastern cooling another colder Southwestern rainstorm appears in all modeling next weekend (Apr 13-14), which later shifts into the East by early in the 11-15 day period (Apr 18). With minor cooler exceptions (mainly seasonal) all extended range models maintain this week’s warm-biased temperature range devoid of below average extremes into the start of the final week of April. Longer range guidance valid during the final week of April into the 1st week of May are not well aligned but appear to fully breakdown El Niño forcing and associated north-south temperature and precipitation gradients across the U.S. faster than previously anticipated. In this scenario a greater expanse of wet mid-late spring conditions include most of the northern U.S. limiting magnitude of above average temperatures to mainly single digits.


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