Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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June 27 - Long Range Summary

Canadian air draining into the Eastern half of the country at the start of this week marks onset of noticeably milder conditions ending multiday periods of excessive heat observed during most of June.  This does not preclude briefer surges of significant heat as recent model consensus warms the Great Lakes and Northeast back into the 90s at the end of this workweek (Thursday and Friday respectively), before cool air returns next weekend (Jul 2-3). Meanwhile the hottest temperatures of summer underway along the West Coast (including 100s in portions of the Pacific Northwest) will linger into midweek before also subsiding during the latter half of this week. Models are exhibiting much greater divergence than typical across all forecast periods as successive runs struggle with faster low amplitude flow. When averaged over multiday time scales near seasonal temperatures are forecast across the Eastern half of the U.S. most of this week, before sustained above average heat resumes across the South (upper 90s-low 100s) during the 6-10 day period. Cool Canadian air will be slowest to fully depart the Northeast until after the 11-15 day period, but once it does longer range models maintain above average temperatures across the entire Midwest, South, and East in a near sustained manner during the latter half of July at the climatological peak of summer heat.


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