It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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November 29 - Long Range Summary
Above average warmth which predominated the majority of the West and northern Plains throughout November is quickly expanding eastward, with the Northeast last to shift warm. A cold start to the coming week across the Northeast featuring temperatures 5° below average is certain to briefly reverse 5° above average midweek, before cold air returns at the end of the week. All models prolong this modest volatility across the Northeast characterized by near seasonal mean temperatures when averaged over several day time scales through the end of the 1st full week of December. Extended range models eventually flood the Northeast with milder air during the 11-15 day period, but this accompanies large scale pattern change directing notably colder air through west central Canada into the Rockies and Plains. Central U.S. cooling forecast to start late in the 6-10 day period may not mark onset of sustained below average temperatures. However, that is not the case across Canada where progressive cooling sets the stage for significantly colder mid December conditions across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which are likely to expand into the East by the final week of the month to persist through early January.
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