New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
MWA Forecast Model and Lead Scientists
One of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR’s) primary areas of research is the development of computer models designed to improve our understanding of complex interaction between the atmosphere, Earth, and sun. These models, developed over the span of decades were originally designed to run on the largest (Cray) computer platforms. Among these are the Community Climate System model (CCSM) which consists of several stand alone components defining affects of atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice to the total climate system.
The atmospheric component, Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is a global spectral model that has never been run in an operational environment, except by our group. Recent technological advances enable the operational use of this model at a forecast time horizon of 30 days. In order to serve as an operational weather forecast model for daily use, software to ingest current atmospheric observations, and perform the initial ensemble member perturbations have been developed by Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook.
Pete Stamus has considerable experience with numerical analysis and the creation of products for forecasters and other end-users. During his 14 years with NOAA’s Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), he co-developed the Local Analysis and Forecast System, and with John Snook led its installation and use at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. Leaving FSL in 2000 Pete joined Foresight Weather, eventually becoming VP – Operations where he supervised both the development and daily operations of the Foresight modeling system. He has also worked on projects for the US Air Force, the National Weather Service (NWS), and NCAR Comet program.
Dr. John Snook worked as an applied research meteorologist with the NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory from 1984 through 1999. He participated in the development of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS), which is now a part of the NWS operational meteorological workstation, since its inception in 1987. John completed a doctoral program in 1993 at the Colorado State University while remaining full-time at FSL. He studied high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with an emphasis on local area applications, which provided the opportunity to incorporate a meteorological computer model into the FSL LAPS package. John received a NOAA bronze medal for efforts contributing to the successful implementation of a local-area NWP system to provide operational support for the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games. John moved to the private sector in 1999 to install numerical weather prediction NWP systems designed to meet client requirements in the utility industry and various other private and public sectors who require NWP services including the US Forest Service.
With acquisition of a set of new dual quad core servers, development and testing of the 30 day MWA ensemble forecast model are complete as of early spring 2010. Global upper level and surface graphical output is currently available and has been utilized in an operational mode in support of MWA 30 day forecasts in March 2010. Consistent model forecasts have verified excellently and effectively cut through the high level of error and noise exhibited in standard forecast model output. Soon numerical point source parameters for any city in the world will be available out to 30 days.
For more information contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
September 9 - Long Range Summary
Below average temperatures which peaked in intensity across the Midwest, South, and East this past weekend are of increased confidence to represent the final significant cold air outbreak of the next several weeks at a minimum. Not only are recent model forecasts faster to flood nearly all of the Eastern half of the U.S. with midsummer-level heat during the 1st half of this coming week featuring 90s as far north as the northern Plains and 80s across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but this week’s fundamental pattern shift is highly stable and on track to persist well into October according to all longer range models. The main source of day-day volatility to predominantly well above average temperatures east of the Rockies is precipitation including renewed tropical cyclone activity which models are struggling to resolve. Recent European model forecasts have been most consistent in development of an area of disturbed weather currently in the Bay of Campeche to the next named tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico early this week (potentially Francine), followed by landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana late Wednesday- early Thursday. Subsequent to landfall weakening remnants of this tropical system are forecast to lift northward toward the Great Lakes into next weekend (Sep 14-15) moderating daytime high temperatures along the way. Longer range forecasts of the ECMWF model indicate a similar wet scenario along the mid Atlantic coast by the following weekend (Sep 21-22) as a 2nd potential tropical cyclone makes a close pass along the East Coast. The tropical airmass accompanying either system is far from cold especially at night when overnight low temperatures may reach or exceed 10° above average, but the same clouds and tropical rain represent brief moderation to daytime highs near seasonal levels (mainly 70s). Meanwhile in the West the most recent prolonged period of record heat observed through the 1st week of September is beginning to subside from north-south starting in the Pacific Northwest this present weekend, with continued cooling to slightly below average temperatures forecast across the region by midweek (Sep 11). Farther south near record heat still underway between Southern California and the Desert Southwest will be slowest to moderate closer to seasonal temperatures midweek in a prolonged manner.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.