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January 15 - Long Range Summary

Early week arctic air reinforcement surging due southward to the Gulf Coast and Florida is stronger in latest modeling (25° below average), along with a swath of snow and ice extending from central Texas late Monday through the northern Gulf Coast states Tuesday. Unlike early January the Northeast will be spared the core of coldest air this week, but very frigid air arriving last weekend (15° below average) will be slow to moderate through the majority of the workweek. It is late week into the start of next weekend (Jan 19-20) when fundamental pattern change marks onset of near sustained well above average temperatures in the Midwest and East to predominate the remainder of the month into early February, and a cooler and stormier West. However, recent extended range model forecasts are colder in the Plains as active Western storms periodically eject east of the Rockies, to briefly cool temperatures below average in the northern Plains, and near average in Texas. Longer range confidence in return of cold air to the Eastern U.S. to predominate mid-late February is increased as the 30-day MWA ensemble is latching onto re-establishment of arctic air across Canada earlier in the month.


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