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September 24 - Long Range Summary

Near seasonal high temperatures in the 60s across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. last weekend, while summerlike 90s persist across the Southeast are a harbinger of a sharpening airmass contrast set to predominate the next 10-15 days. One more surge of unseasonably warm air across the Great Lakes and Northeast early this week is forecast to peak Wednesday near 10° above average (70s-low 80s), at the same time the coldest air since last spring dives into the northern Rockies and northern Plains cooling highs mainly into the 50s. However, greatly improved model consensus substantially limits eastward and southern expansion of cold air into the Midwest, South, and East as lobes of reinforcing cold Canadian air focus more directly into the north-central U.S. into next week leaving both the Southeast and Southwest in persistent above average warmth. Much of this stagnant and blocked pattern is related to colder model forecasts in the Northwest U.S. However all long range model forecasts limit duration of sharp temperature contrasts, signaling return of near coast to coast moderate above average warmth by the end of the 11-15 day period setting the stage for a mild October overall.


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