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    September 26 - Long Range Summary

    Canadian air draining into the Eastern half of the U.S. is certain to finally replace excessive heat in Texas (mid 90s-low 100s) observed through most of September with near seasonal temperatures (mid-upper 80s) and noticeably lower humidity to predominate this final week of the month. Coldest temperatures farther north are forecast to peak this workweek near 10° below average across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and Northeast.  Meanwhile summerlike heat contracting into the West during the 1st half of this week generating near record temperatures in Southern California (100° in Burbank), is faster to spread east of the Rockies in a modified (weakening) form starting in the Plains (mainly 80s-low 90s) by early this weekend according to recent model consensus. Timing of arrival of seasonably warm air into the Midwest and East is less clear as forecast tracks of Hurricane Ian through the eastern Gulf of Mexico into Florida and the Southeast Wednesday-Thursday are more uncertain than typical, with exceedingly slowing speed of the cyclone in weakening steering flow ensuring heavy tropical rainfall will persist over some portion of the Eastern Seaboard well into next week. However, all extended range models are trending progressively warmer across the eastern 3rd of the U.S. by the 11-15 day period adding high forecast confidence to an unseasonably  warm October overall  across nearly all of the U.S. likely to persist into early November.


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