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June 17 - Long Range Summary

Transitional week ahead as last week’s record setting June heat across large areas of the West gradually erodes, and gives way to seasonal to below average temperatures by the end of the week. Western cooling will be slowest from interior California into the central Great Basin where triple digit heat (near 10° above average) will linger into midweek. Meanwhile noticeable heat and humidity gradually build northward through Texas (mid-upper 90s) and the Southeast (upper 80s-low 90s) especially during the latter half of the week as wet conditions begin to subside. All models continue each temperature trend through the 6-10 day period; cooling all of the West and northern Plains to seasonal levels or several degrees below average, while east of the Rockies above average warmth spreads northward to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Mainly pattern longevity separates recent extended range forecasts; with the European model far more prolonged with above average Northeastern heat into early July, while GFS runs shift the core of heat into the central U.S. at the expense of renewed Eastern cooling. However, warm (and drier) ECMWF 11-15 day Eastern forecasts are far more aligned with atmospheric teleconnection forecasts, setting the stage for a markedly warmer mid-late summer overall.


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