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January 14 - Long Range Summary

This week starts cold along most of the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of the weekend winter storm which produced significant snow and ice across the Midwest and mid Atlantic region. Most of this new snow will melt this week as the mild Pacific flow pattern of early January persists for several more days focusing well above average warmth from the Plains (including 70s in Texas) to the Southeast. However, all models have aligned to major and prolonged pattern change fully replacing mild maritime flow with reinforcing arctic air outbreaks extending deep into the eastern half of the U.S. by next weekend (Jan 18-19). Models are also trending more extreme with intensity of arctic air during the climatologically coldest period of winter (final week of January through 1st week of February). However, latest government model forecasts are still not considered cold enough as 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts are more aggressive to develop blocked flow. Regardless of magnitude of cold air, below average temperatures are of increased confidence to dominate most of February across the Midwest, South, and East.


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