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April 6 - Long Range Summary

A slow moving storm bringing significant rain and mountain snow to California early this week sets the stage for another strong warm-up east of the Rockies. However, above average temperatures peaking during the 1st half of this coming week are near certain to be the final unseasonably warm conditions across the Midwest, South, and East until late April. This is because all extended range models complete full pattern reversal late this week; establishing warm conditions across the West, and an extended period of polar air reinforcement deep into the Eastern half of the country. Only magnitude of temperature anomalies remain of model debate, with European model forecasts more extreme than GFS forecasts. The colder forecast scenario which overwhelms the Northeast with more than 10° below average temperatures late this week, followed by at least 2 additional winter-like cold air outbreaks during the following week of Apr 13, is most consistent with the coldest aligned atmospheric teleconnections since November.  This significantly cold mid April scenario is also similar to longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble which gradually resume near sustained above average warmth across the Eastern U.S. during the final week of the month to extend into May.


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