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October 15 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike warmth which dominated the Midwest, East, and South during the 1st half of October is effectively over, except Florida where new heat records are likely this week. Winter-like cold air (20° below average or more) extending deep into the southern Plains (Texas) early week reaches the Northeast and mid Atlantic region midweek at less extreme intensity (5°-10° below average). While a 2nd reinforcing surge of seasonably cold air is forecast to focus more directly into the Great Lakes and Northeast by next weekend (Oct 20-21), all models agree above average warmth building across the West this week will spread into the same areas of the north-central U.S. and Canada which are currently coldest. The warmer consensus in government models virtually ensures the coming week of below average temperatures across the East and South is temporary, though full reversal back to above average warmth appears delayed to late in the 11-15 day period by precipitation. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which were 1st to sense eradication of arctic air from Canada re-establish widespread above average temperatures across the U.S. to dominate late fall.


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