New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
October 21 - Long Range Summary
Warming underway across the Eastern half of the U.S. is occurring faster than any model previously forecast. Temperatures are still rising and near certain to peak 20° above average or more across the Great Lakes (80s) and Northeast (upper 70s) during the 1st half of this week before a brief shot of cooler air arrives Oct 23-24. However models continue to back-off intensity and duration of late week cooling across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal temperatures at best) with little to no penetration of cooler air farther south into the core of near record heat entrenched across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley (upper 80s-90s). This persistently hot Southern airmass will spread back northward into the Great Lakes and Northeast at the end of this week (Oct 25-26), to likely again peak warmer than models forecast through the end of October (15°-20° above average or more). In the West colder air spreading into interior areas produced high elevation snow in the Rockies and interrupted prolonged record heat which persisted several weeks into mid October. However, Western cooling arrived weaker than models forecast (slightly-moderately below average), and fast warming already underway has latest forecasts shifting hotter back near record levels across the Southwest (mid-upper 90s) for several consecutive days this week. Modestly cool (and wet conditions) lingering in the Pacific Northwest are now forecast to expand across more of the West during the 11-15 day period, but extended range models have been performing poorly and appear to be overestimating magnitude and duration of Western cooling. Regardless of intensity details periodic Western cooling is a warm signal across the Eastern U.S. adding confidence to greater resilience to unseasonably mild temperatures east of the Rockies through November totally devoid of significant below average temperatures.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.