New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

September 16 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike heat and humidity are of high confidence to predominate the Eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of September, albeit with noticeable fluctuation in geographic focus and intensity. This week starts much as last week ended with record and near record high temperatures across most of the South from Texas to Georgia (upper 90s-low 100s), while the Northwest remains coolest. However, more Southern heat is already spreading northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and all models agree mid 80s will predominate the entire week in Chicago (11°-15° above average). New England and portions of upstate New York will remain seasonal to slightly cool for most of this workweek, and some of this cooler air will drain southward along the Eastern Seaboard bringing temporary midweek relief to portions of the Southeast (1-2 days of near seasonal temperatures). However, by the end of this workweek an extended period of extreme heat is forecast to return to the East, this time to include the Northeast in the form of mid-upper 80s for several consecutive days persisting into the start of the following week (Sep 23). After that models differ substantially in timing and strength of cooler lobes of air shifting across the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. through the final week of September, while greater forecast consensus exists in resumption of above average warmth across the West. Some degree of Eastern cooling is likely by the 11-15 day period, but prior operational model forecasts of widespread or prolonged below average temperatures during the 1st half of September failed to verify. This adds confidence to warmer 30-day MWA Ensemble forecasts which maintain very mild conditions across most of the U.S. well into the 1st half of October to further delay the start to fall. However, at the same time latest forecasts also indicate major high latitude pattern change in Canada setting the stage for a cold 2nd half of October across the Eastern U.S.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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