New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

July 15 - Long Range Summary

NWS Excessive Heat Warnings or Advisories stretching nearly coast to coast this past weekend marked start of the 3rd widespread heatwave this summer forecast to peak temperatures in the 90s as far north as the Great Lakes and Northeast (near 10° above average) through the 1st half of this week. All mid-late week model forecasts shift wetter and cooler to varying degree across the Midwest, South, and East, albeit forecast consensus is weakest with cooling in the Northeast where less extreme above average heat (mid-upper 80s) and humidity (dewpoints in the 60s) persist to predominate the climatological peak of summer. Meanwhile wettest and coolest conditions forecast across a wide swath of the southeast quadrant of the country (seasonal-slightly below average) from the central and southern Plains to the Southeast coast need to be monitored as a potential prolonged mild signal through the remainder of summer. This is because all models shifted progressively wetter across the Southeast in recent weekend runs and latest forecasts may not yet be wet enough. If wettest models verify then the hottest part of summer may end after the 1st half of this coming week between eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley to most of the Gulf Coast where saturated soils already exist.  However, that is not the case in the West where the next widespread and prolonged excessive heatwave is already underway, featuring triple digit temperatures from interior California to most of the Canadian border between interior Washington and eastern Montana, with near record 120° heat in the Desert Southwest. At this point there is no end in sight to well above average Western heat, including Southwestern areas typically moderated by monsoon rainfall which continues to verify less widespread and of lower accumulation than climatology.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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