New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
December 2 - Long Range Summary
Arctic air flooding the entire eastern half of the U.S. during the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend producing the coldest temperatures in nearly 50 years (since 1976) is slowly moderating closer to normal early this week, but widespread double-digit below average temperatures are far from over during the 1st half of December. The latter half of this week (Dec 5-7) is certain to feature another pure arctic air outbreak emanating from Siberia extending all the way to the Gulf and East Coasts. Unlike last week the core of coldest arctic air is forecast to focus more directly into the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. sparing the northern Plains from repeat of extreme single digit high temperatures and overnight lows in the negative teens (25°-30° below average). Now that arrival of the next intense arctic air outbreak is within the short range models are shifting colder across the Midwest and East in forecasts valid at the end of this workweek (15° below average or more), but still may not be cold (or snowy) enough into the 1st half of next week (Dec 8-11). Meanwhile most of the West continues to slowly warm 5°-10° above average before all extended range models allude to the next fundamental pattern shift mid December establishing lower amplitude flow across North America. In response all 11-15 day model forecasts are closer to seasonal temperatures across the vast majority of the U.S. but are considered too warm across in the Midwest and East as low level arctic air typically moderates slower than models forecast favoring persistence of at least slightly below average temperatures. Still most of the latter half of December is almost certain to be substantially milder across the Midwest and East (warmest in the Southeast) than the frigid start to winter. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts shift noticeably colder during the final weekend of the month (Dec 28-29), potentially marking onset of the next prolonged period of below average temperatures between the Rockies and East Coast through early January.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.