New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

September 13 - Long Range Summary

This week begins with an extended series of notably cool and wet Pacific storms entering the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile greatest U.S. heat lingers farther south in the Desert Southwest (107°-112°), but is spreading eastward in a less extreme form generating summerlike 90s from the central Plains to the mid Atlantic region. Near seasonal temperatures in place across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. are more prone to midweek warming than prior model forecasts indicated; peaking in the mid 80s in the Dakotas, to low 80s in the Northeast. This warmer model shift east of the Rockies is largely driven by impacts to large scale flow generated by potentially 2 areas of tropical development approaching the U.S. One already formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning (Tropical Storm Nicholas), while the 2nd area of disturbed weather is near of the Bahamas. The former is certain to generate heavy rain along the Texas Gulf Coast early this week (Monday and Tuesday), while models are uncertain how close the latter potential tropical depression or storm passes along the East Coast late week. Several inches of tropical rain appear to be the main threat with each system, but far less certain impacts to large scale flow have successive government model runs flipping wildly to the point recent forecasts are 180° opposed across the U.S. by day-10, and intermittent model runs significantly cool the Northeast during the 11-15 day period. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain consistent in limiting magnitude and duration of below average temperatures reaching the Northeast, and even the Northwest warms by late September giving way to milder above average temperatures across the vast majority of the U.S. to predominate October. .

 


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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