New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

April 8 - Long Range Summary

Exit of a slow moving late season winter storm (nor’easter) farther off the New England coast late this past weekend marks onset of noticeable warming, and effective end to the significant cold-biased pattern which predominated the Eastern half of the U.S. since mid March. Unseasonably warm temperatures peaking near or above 70° across most of the Great Lakes and Northeast (15° above average) early this week (Monday-Tuesday) will remain brief, before clouds and rain sharply cool daytime highs across the entire Midwest and East between seasonal and moderately below average levels during the latter half of the week (Apr 10-13) depending on uncertain model forecasts. Regardless of which model verifies the same widespread cloud cover and rain across the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. are certain to suppress overnight cooling, elevating minimum temperatures several degrees above average to still skew mean temperatures above average.  Meanwhile warmest U.S. temperatures are forecast across the Southwest late this workweek (Thursday and Friday) featuring mid 90s across the deserts (including Phoenix) which are about 10° above average and warmer than prior forecasts. Similar to modest midweek Eastern cooling another colder Southwestern rainstorm appears in all modeling next weekend (Apr 13-14), which later shifts into the East by early in the 11-15 day period (Apr 18). With minor cooler exceptions (mainly seasonal) all extended range models maintain this week’s warm-biased temperature range devoid of below average extremes into the start of the final week of April. Longer range guidance valid during the final week of April into the 1st week of May are not well aligned but appear to fully breakdown El Niño forcing and associated north-south temperature and precipitation gradients across the U.S. faster than previously anticipated. In this scenario a greater expanse of wet mid-late spring conditions include most of the northern U.S. limiting magnitude of above average temperatures to mainly single digits.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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