New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements


30 Day Weather Forecast:


This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.


90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.



July 6 - Long Range Summary

Models have latched onto July’s hot start across the Eastern half of the U.S. as an even hotter signal this week featuring the most widespread and prolonged highs in the mid 90s of summer to date. Humidity is also on the rise suggesting Excessive Heat Warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) for portions of the interior Northeast as early as this Thursday, and central-northern Texas (Dallas) by Friday. While the core of greatest heat relative to normal remains focused across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the next 10-days, recent temperatures across the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. have verified warmer than models forecast (slightly above average) largely because summerlike (hit or miss) rainfall has been isolated. The 1st half of this week may be somewhat wetter across the southeastern quadrant of the country, and possible tropical (or hybrid) storm development near the coast of the Carolinas late this week (Jul 10-11) could briefly impact coastal areas farther north to the New England coast. However, model forecasts have shifted much drier during the 6-10 day period and beyond across nearly the entire U.S. including the Southeast. This drier forecast trend appears related to model recognition of onset of the next large scale pattern change previously described in MWA forecasts to complete around July 16 shifting the core of greatest heat into portions of the Southern half of the U.S. to predominate late July and early August. This is still a relatively warm and humid scenario farther north as “ring of fire” type rain showers focusing across the Great Lakes and Northeast would typically only cool temperatures modestly to less extreme above average levels than sustained 90s forecast to predominate the next 10-days.

If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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