New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

September 14 - Long Range Summary

Approach of intensifying Tropical Storm Sally through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and much stronger Hurricane Paulette toward Bermuda have radically shifted all model forecasts colder across the Midwest and East. Paulette is unlikely to directly impact the continental U.S. but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts Sally’s landfall at category 1-2 hurricane strength in southeastern Louisiana Tuesday, which is farther east than model forecasts. After landfall Sally is near certain to slow considerably near the central Gulf Coast generating multiple days of flooding rainfall through the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Models are far less certain with ultimate northward extent of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Sally, especially into the Northeast but by the end of the workweek overwhelm the region with the coldest air (more than 10° below average) for the longest consecutive day period observed since last spring.  Late September temperatures have potential to plummet several degrees lower across the northeastern quadrant of the country than model forecasts more typical of mid October while greatest and most sustained above average warmth remains focused between the interior West and northern Plains. However, during the transition from September to October (16-20 day period) 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts spread warm Western air across the East in a mild coast to coast pattern anticipated to predominate mid fall.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398