New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

November 18 - Long Range Summary

Major pattern change cutting off transport of arctic air into the U.S. and Canada ensures the 2nd half of November will be nowhere near as cold as its frigid start. Substantial warming near 15° above average across the central U.S. early this week is forecast by all models to spread eastward in  less extreme but still very noticeable form (7°-10° above average) by midweek, to fully reverse the cold start to the week across the Midwest and Northeast. However, this week’s marked warm-up to above average temperatures across the Eastern half of the country has not stopped many longer range model forecasts from flipping significantly colder during the final week of November. Part of the recent spike in forecast volatility is driven by model uncertainty associated with the 1st wet storm of the season to move through Southern California and the Southwestern U.S. this week. This beneficial Southwestern precipitation is near certain to spread farther east through Texas and the Southeast during the latter half of this week, but the tropical Pacific origin of this disturbance is far from cold suggesting temperatures in most of these areas only briefly cools to seasonably cold levels. Greater forecast spread exists within colder northern jet streamflow, with some model runs indicating strong winter storm development in the Midwest and East early next week (Nov 25-26). Until additional model runs converge to this stormier Eastern scenario cold late November forecasts are considered overdone.  Even if aggressive late November winter storm forecasts were to verify temperatures can only temporarily cool moderately below average due to absence of arctic air. Mild December temperatures overall remain the going early winter forecast.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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