New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
September 9 - Long Range Summary
Below average temperatures which peaked in intensity across the Midwest, South, and East this past weekend are of increased confidence to represent the final significant cold air outbreak of the next several weeks at a minimum. Not only are recent model forecasts faster to flood nearly all of the Eastern half of the U.S. with midsummer-level heat during the 1st half of this coming week featuring 90s as far north as the northern Plains and 80s across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but this week’s fundamental pattern shift is highly stable and on track to persist well into October according to all longer range models. The main source of day-day volatility to predominantly well above average temperatures east of the Rockies is precipitation including renewed tropical cyclone activity which models are struggling to resolve. Recent European model forecasts have been most consistent in development of an area of disturbed weather currently in the Bay of Campeche to the next named tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico early this week (potentially Francine), followed by landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana late Wednesday- early Thursday. Subsequent to landfall weakening remnants of this tropical system are forecast to lift northward toward the Great Lakes into next weekend (Sep 14-15) moderating daytime high temperatures along the way. Longer range forecasts of the ECMWF model indicate a similar wet scenario along the mid Atlantic coast by the following weekend (Sep 21-22) as a 2nd potential tropical cyclone makes a close pass along the East Coast. The tropical airmass accompanying either system is far from cold especially at night when overnight low temperatures may reach or exceed 10° above average, but the same clouds and tropical rain represent brief moderation to daytime highs near seasonal levels (mainly 70s). Meanwhile in the West the most recent prolonged period of record heat observed through the 1st week of September is beginning to subside from north-south starting in the Pacific Northwest this present weekend, with continued cooling to slightly below average temperatures forecast across the region by midweek (Sep 11). Farther south near record heat still underway between Southern California and the Desert Southwest will be slowest to moderate closer to seasonal temperatures midweek in a prolonged manner.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.