New and Improved Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models.  Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.

The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

 

30 Day Weather Forecast:

 

This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output.  Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets.  This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.

The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers.  The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.

 

90 Day Weather Forecast:

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions.  The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.

Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

 

 

May 20 - Long Range Summary

Midsummer-level temperatures across the Southern U.S. this past weekend featured more expansive triple digit heat across the southwest quadrant of the U.S. than models forecast (including central and West Texas). Not only is this early season heat currently expanding north and east to produce multiple days of the hottest temperatures of the year across the Great Lakes and Northeast starting by Tuesday (15°-20° above average), but latest model consensus is significantly slower to spread an unseasonably cold Western airmass east of the Rockies prolonging near record heat (90s) across most of the Northeast though Thursday. Even after a lead weakening cold front passes off the New England by Friday recent modeling indicates brief cooling will fail to reach seasonal levels across the Northeast (still 3°-6° above average) through next weekend (May 25-26). Another less extreme Eastern warm-up  (7°-10° above average) early in the final week of May, while unseasonably cold air of Gulf of Alaska continues to drain through western Canada into the Western U.S. ensures the next week to 10-days will continue to feature severe thunderstorms focusing across the central U.S. along the boundary of sharp west-east temperature contrast. However, all extended range models have latched onto onset of lower amplitude pattern change before May is over, ejecting the final cold Western airmass of the extended series across the central and Eastern U.S. in a progressively weakening form.  As such the 11-15 day period is forecast to be a transitional period of modest Eastern cooling (slightly below average at best) and early stages of progressive warming west of the Rockies. In this more summerlike low amplitude pattern warm air advancing back into the East before the end of the 1st week of June (16-20 day period) represents start of near coast to coast slightly-moderately above average temperatures and drier conditions on track to predominate June.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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