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July 6 - Long Range Summary

Models have latched onto July’s hot start across the Eastern half of the U.S. as an even hotter signal this week featuring the most widespread and prolonged highs in the mid 90s of summer to date. Humidity is also on the rise suggesting Excessive Heat Warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) for portions of the interior Northeast as early as this Thursday, and central-northern Texas (Dallas) by Friday. While the core of greatest heat relative to normal remains focused across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the next 10-days, recent temperatures across the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. have verified warmer than models forecast (slightly above average) largely because summerlike (hit or miss) rainfall has been isolated. The 1st half of this week may be somewhat wetter across the southeastern quadrant of the country, and possible tropical (or hybrid) storm development near the coast of the Carolinas late this week (Jul 10-11) could briefly impact coastal areas farther north to the New England coast. However, model forecasts have shifted much drier during the 6-10 day period and beyond across nearly the entire U.S. including the Southeast. This drier forecast trend appears related to model recognition of onset of the next large scale pattern change previously described in MWA forecasts to complete around July 16 shifting the core of greatest heat into portions of the Southern half of the U.S. to predominate late July and early August. This is still a relatively warm and humid scenario farther north as “ring of fire” type rain showers focusing across the Great Lakes and Northeast would typically only cool temperatures modestly to less extreme above average levels than sustained 90s forecast to predominate the next 10-days.

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