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August 13 - Long Range Summary

Record setting triple digit high temperatures observed in the Dakotas this past weekend are part of widespread above average heat across the majority of the northern half of the U.S. and nearly the entire West, which have characterized all of August to date and are forecast to predominate the next 10-days. Models are far less certain in precipitation details (and associated seasonably cool temperatures) generated by weak disturbances slowly moving between the central – southern Plains and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However, rainfall observed in most of Texas has underperformed model predictions, and all latest guidance is faster to re-establish dry conditions and moderate warmth (mid-upper 90s) by midweek. While some precipitation may return to the Deep South next weekend (Aug 18-19) and intermittent Eastern rainfall will linger into the 6-10 day period, by the 11-15 day period more long range models are latching onto establishment of far more sustained dry and warm conditions across the Midwest, South and East in a midsummer-like pattern on track to predominate late August and most of not all of September.


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