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July 16 - Long Range Summary

The latest surge of noticeably hot and muggy air across the Midwest and Northeast persists until a pattern changing cold front drops both temperatures and humidity near seasonal midsummer levels by midweek. However, model forecasts continue to contract the core of greatest and most sustained cooling farther north and west from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and even these regions are not consistently below average through the next 10-days. Development of wet conditions across the Southeast this week quickly re-establishes elevated humidity along the entire Eastern Seaboard, extending back into the Northeast by the start of the 6-10 day period which is a warmer signal favoring several degree above average overnight lows). Meanwhile triple digit heat building across nearly all of Texas early this week is forecast to warm further by Thursday reaching near record or record levels approaching 110° in northern areas of the State (including Dallas). This strong mid July heat in the central – southern Plains also extends to Southern California by next weekend (Jul 21-22) initiating another multiday extreme heatwave in coastal cities and adjacent areas including Los Angeles and Burbank. Most longer range forecasts effectively end cool conditions in the north-central U.S. during the final 5-days of July, setting the stage for return of coast to coast above average warmth to predominate the 1st half of August.


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