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April 16 - Long Range Summary

This week begins winter-like with record setting cold temperatures deep into the Plains and Midwest (20°-30° below average), and near 15° below average temperatures from the Northeast into the Southeast. Latest model runs have shifted colder through day-10 to the point of forecasting 2-3 day periods of similar magnitude below average temperatures as several additional large Pacific storms track from coast to coast across the U.S. tapping into lingering cold air in Canada. However, all longer range models signal varying degree of warming across the Eastern U.S. during the 11-15 day period. This milder model shift is consistent with long standing 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which effectively end connection to significant cold air by the end of April; setting the stage for a far milder start to May characterized by warm-biased temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, and gradual moderation across the Northeast to near seasonal late spring warmth. 


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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398