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February 11 - Long Range Summary

Recent weekend cold high temperatures more than 25° below average across nearly all of Texas and 15° below average across the Southeast will not last as another strong warm-up is on tap across the South this week. However, less warming will make it into the northeastern quadrant of the country in an active storm parade emanating from the West, including significant snow and ice across the interior Northeast Tuesday. What has changed most in recent model forecasts are significantly colder 6-15 day trends indicating eastward expansion of arctic air from the current frigid core (30°-40° below average) between the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest, into the East in a less extreme but still significantly below average form. Only timing details separate recent extended range model forecasts in onset of a very cold end to February in the Midwest, South and East. Return of sustained cold to the East later than MWA previously forecast is a sign winter-like conditions are likely to persist into mid March, before the still anticipated strong temperature reversal to seasonably warm conditions by late March ushers in a much milder mid-late spring than observed last year.


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