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August 19 - Long Range Summary
The 1st half of this week is certain to feature the most widespread excessive heat and elevated humidity of summer nearly from coast to coast in which several new records are likely in the West, Plains, and East (mainly mid Atlantic region). This surge of heat will also represent the hottest temperatures of August for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, though these areas cool by Thursday for a 2-3 day period of seasonal to slightly below average temperatures. However, along the West Coast where models once indicated a cold end to the week, latest runs are totally opposite and indicative of early stages of development of a stable midsummer-like large scale pattern across North America and adjacent Ocean sectors. This virtually ensures resumption of above average heat in the Northeast next weekend (Aug 24-25) in a more sustained manner which extended range models are still struggling with. Forecasts valid during the transition from late August to early September (11-15 day period) are considered too cold, albeit successive runs cannot settle on which areas between the Rockies and East Coast will be coldest. In contrast 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain much warmer during this period and beyond, which is far more consistent with large scale atmospheric teleconnections favoring a summerlike warm majority of September from coast to coast.
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