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February 10 - Long Range Summary

A cold front diving through Texas late this past weekend marks effective end to sharp temperature contrast observed the past several days separating arctic air in the north central U.S. (~30° below average) from record heat observed across the Deep South (80s-90s). Now that significant expansion of unseasonably cold arctic air and snowcover are actually underway in the central U.S. greatly improved model consensus cools most of the western two thirds of the U.S. from the interior Pacific Northwest to the Mississippi Valley the greatest this week (20°-30° below average), after which the core of coldest air shifts eastward into the Midwest and East early next week (Feb 16-20) . Model alignment cooling the Eastern U.S. greatest during the 3rd   week of February is the closest yet to longstanding 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts, adding support to latest MWA ensemble forecasts which are slowest to moderate the Midwest and East maintaining well below average temperatures into the start of the final week of the month (11-15 day period). At this point there are no signs of additional arctic air outbreaks reaching the U.S. in an intense or prolonged manner through early March. However, the combination of widespread snowcover expansion in February and lingering La Niña conditions are a recipe for persistence of seasonably cold and quite wet early spring conditions across the majority of the northern U.S. Meanwhile fairly mild Southern U.S. conditions resuming by late February are likely to fluctuate between seasonal and moderately above average temperatures through early spring.


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