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February 19 - Long Range Summary

Record setting temperature contrast builds through midweek across the entire U.S. as late spring-level warmth in the Southeast (70s-low 80s) intensifies and expands northward to the eastern Great lakes and Northeast at 20°-30° above average strength, while frigid arctic air in the Northwest and northern Plains (subzero highs) spreads southward deep into the Southwest to Texas at 15° below average intensity or more. Each extreme temperature anomaly will moderate several degrees during the latter half of this week, but the general west-east contrast between cold and warm late winter conditions will predominate most of next week. However, plummeting Eastern U.S. temperatures during the 11-15 day period are now of highest forecast confidence as ALL models have latched onto marked pattern change effectively ending strong or prolonged above average warmth. Latest model forecasts which spread below average temperatures deep into the southern U.S. from Texas to Florida by the end of the 11-15 day period set the stage for a very cold and wintery March by spring standards across the Midwest and East.


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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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