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November 18 - Long Range Summary

Major pattern change cutting off transport of arctic air into the U.S. and Canada ensures the 2nd half of November will be nowhere near as cold as its frigid start. Substantial warming near 15° above average across the central U.S. early this week is forecast by all models to spread eastward in  less extreme but still very noticeable form (7°-10° above average) by midweek, to fully reverse the cold start to the week across the Midwest and Northeast. However, this week’s marked warm-up to above average temperatures across the Eastern half of the country has not stopped many longer range model forecasts from flipping significantly colder during the final week of November. Part of the recent spike in forecast volatility is driven by model uncertainty associated with the 1st wet storm of the season to move through Southern California and the Southwestern U.S. this week. This beneficial Southwestern precipitation is near certain to spread farther east through Texas and the Southeast during the latter half of this week, but the tropical Pacific origin of this disturbance is far from cold suggesting temperatures in most of these areas only briefly cools to seasonably cold levels. Greater forecast spread exists within colder northern jet streamflow, with some model runs indicating strong winter storm development in the Midwest and East early next week (Nov 25-26). Until additional model runs converge to this stormier Eastern scenario cold late November forecasts are considered overdone.  Even if aggressive late November winter storm forecasts were to verify temperatures can only temporarily cool moderately below average due to absence of arctic air. Mild December temperatures overall remain the going early winter forecast.


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