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March 19 - Long Range Summary

Recent January–level temperatures across the Northeast are several degrees colder than even short range models forecast and a sign of a cold full week ahead. Substantial cold air by spring standards will also return to the Southeast by midweek in the wake of the 1st of 3 distinct storms lined up to track off the East Coast through early next week (Mar 26). Meanwhile marked pattern change in the eastern Pacific is forecast to direct the highest moisture levels of the entire cold season onto the Southern California coast early this week producing heavy coastal rain and mountain snow. Extended range model forecasts have been struggling greatly with downstream implications of this wetter Western pattern during the 11-15 day period and beyond, and are considered too warm across the Eastern half of the country.  However, latest model forecasts have begun to shift colder across the Eastern half of the country during the 11-15 day period, and will likely continue this colder trend in subsequent runs consistent with atmospheric teleconnections which suggest prolonged flow of cold air (and snow) across the northeastern quadrant of the country into early April.

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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301
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