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October 19 - Long Range Summary

Reinforcing lobes of unseasonably cold air (near 15° below average) focusing through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains this week are certain to modify (weaken) quickly while spreading farther south and east into a very warm airmass building along the Eastern Seaboard. Improved model consensus peaks temperatures across the majority of the South and East 15° above average or more this workweek followed by minor moderation to less extreme warmth (3°-6° above average) to predominate the 6-10 day period. The southwest quadrant of the U.S. from interior California to Texas will also be very warm by late October standards for most of this week. However, the final blast of cold air of the October series is forecast in latest modeling to reach most of the West after focusing along a more westward trajectory through the northern intermountain region next weekend (Oct 24-25) at significantly greater intensity near 30° below average. Even this extreme winter-like arctic airmass will progressively modify upon ejecting east of the Rockies early next week (Oct 26-27) generating 2-3 days of only moderate cooling (7°-10° below average) in most of the South and East during the 11-15 day period. Once this final lobe of cold air exits through the Northeast by early in the 16-20 day period longer range guidance establishes much more widespread and sustained above average temperatures across the U.S. to predominate November.

 


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