Melita’s forecasts are written for professional traders and business people in Weather Impacted Business.
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January 10 - Long Range Summary
As frigid arctic air focuses through the Great Lakes and Northeast at 15°-20° below average intensity to predominate the Eastern U.S. through the 1st half of this week (Jan 10-12), formerly coldest regions through winter to date in the northern Rockies and Plains are certain to warm just as greatly (~20° above average). This fundamental pattern change ensures noticeably milder air of Pacific origin will return to the East during the latter half of this week, albeit snow cover will limit temperature recovery closer to seasonal levels through the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile models are highly uncertain in persistence of warmer (and drier) conditions already returning to the West, and this is generating volatility in longer range Eastern U.S. forecasts valid during the 11-15 day period. However, the overwhelming model trend is clearly colder and unsettled east of the Rockies in late January. Whether or not this next cooler pattern shift includes return of arctic air as extreme as that flooding the Northeast early this week is least certain, but early February appears significantly colder than generally mild La Niña climatology.
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