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October 14 - Long Range Summary
The coldest air of the season draining into the Midwest and East early this week is related to early stages of large scale pattern realignment near certain to keep well below average temperatures east of the Rockies brief. Improved model consensus re-establishes near 10° above average warmth (mainly 70s) in the Midwest by Friday and the Northeast Saturday, Oct 19. Substantial (double-digit) above average temperature anomalies are unlikely to persist more than 2-3 days but all extended range models maintain a seasonably warm pattern devoid of additional cold air outbreaks through the final 2-weeks of October. Warm operational model consensus adds support to longer range climate model and 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts maintaining predominance of slightly-moderately above average temperatures across the Midwest and East into mid November, and likely the remainder of fall. Across the Western half of the U.S. models are far less certain concerning important aspects of long term pattern change, with exception of effective end to prolonged record heat which continued between the Desert Southwest (mid 100s) and Texas (mid-upper 90s) into the start of this week. Noticeably cooler air near seasonal temperatures is flooding Texas Monday (80s), but the Desert Southwest is cooling much slower in an unsettled pattern models are struggling to resolve. Despite forecast volatility across the Western half of the U.S. models limit coldest air near 10° below average west of the Rockies during the latter half of this week (Oct 16-19), after which milder conditions closer to seasonal temperatures contract into the Northwest in a more prolonged manner. Meanwhile in the tropics recent ECMWF model forecasts are outlier scenarios concerning development of the next tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic forecast to approach the Southeast late in the 6-10 day period, which may or may not fully verify but suggests the active 2024 hurricane season is not over and may resume late October – early November.
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