Reliable Seasonal Forecasts
Reliable Seasonal Forecasts
December 30 - Long Range Summary
The mild end of December across the vast majority of the U.S. is of increased confidence to be followed by the coldest January observed in a decade or more across the Eastern half of the U.S. As large scale pattern change set to begin during the 1st week of January draws closer improving model forecasts establish sustained arctic air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. persisting 2-weeks or more. A progressive step down in temperatures is already underway in the northern Plains where recent 20° above average warmth is effectively over with arrival of near seasonal temperatures late last weekend. Key to the January forecast overall is the fact no recent model runs direct the core of far more extreme arctic air poised to begin entering the northern U.S. midweek (Jan1-2) west of the Rockies. Instead model convergence directing the core of arctic air deep into the Midwest and Ohio Valley ensures far less modification (warming) of frigid air along its south and east trajectory deep into the Southeast into northern-central Florida where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings will likely be issued valid this coming weekend (Jan 4-5). The Eastern Seaboard where unseasonably warm temperatures are peaking early this week (Dec 30-31) will also cool below average next weekend, followed by progressive cooling near 10° below average by early the following week (Jan 6-7) according to government model consensus. At the same time the majority of the Midwest including Chicago is forecast even colder (~15° below average), and more importantly little time will be available for minor warming before longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble plummet temperatures even colder (near 20° below average) by Jan 12 as this 2nd reinforcing frigid arctic airmass in less than one week also encompasses most of Texas. Sustained double-digit below average temperatures forecast throughout the majority of the Eastern half of the U.S. during the 2nd week of January at the climatological peak of winter are extreme, and near certain to moderate slower than models forecast over significant snowcover expansion also anticipated early-mid January.
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