New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
May 12 - Long Range Summary
Midsummer-level heat in place across the north central U.S. this past weekend (low-mid 90s) shifted eastward in a progressively modifying form bringing several days of relief from the unseasonably cold and wet start to May, while modest rain cooled conditions persist farther south in the Southeast, lower Ohio Valley, and mid Atlantic region. However, temperatures in the 80s forecast to peak across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast (10°-15° above average) late this workweek (May 15-16) are of increased confidence to represent the warmest conditions of not only the remainder of May, but also the initial 10-days of June or more. Colder and wetter model shifts across the northern U.S. starting by next weekend (May 17-18) range between seasonal temperatures to double-digit below average anomalies (highs mainly 50s-60s) virtually ensuring a markedly cooler start to summer than observed last year across the Great Lakes and Northeast. That is not the case across the South, especially in Texas where record setting triple digit heat (~20° above average) certain to briefly peak midweek (May 14) across central and northern areas (including Dallas) will gradually moderate to seasonal temperatures or slightly below average (low 80s) early next week (May 19-20), before far more prolonged summerlike heat resumes to predominate the final 10-days of May. Triple digit heat presently underway across the Southwest (~10° above average) will cool more quickly during the 1st half of this week between seasonal and slightly below average temperatures for a longer period into next week (May 19-23). However, all extended range models re-establish summerlike heat across the majority of the West and Plains early in the final week of May which longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts maintain through June 10.
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