Meteorology + Climatology

Meteorology + Climatology

March 25 - Long Range Summary

An overachieving Northeastern winter storm producing significantly greater snow across interior New York State and New England (1-3 feet), and colder temperatures (20° below average) this past weekend than government models forecast suggests computer generated forecasts valid through the initial week of April are also too warm. The majority of the West was less intensely cold this past weekend, and is forecast to sharply warm above average through this workweek. Meanwhile less prolonged warming across the Northeast through midweek is forecast to peak near 10° above average, before the next late season arctic airmass already diving into the northern Plains (near 30° below average with heavy snow) is likely to spread into the South and East late week in a weakened form. Significant snow is also likely to return to the Northeast next weekend (Mar 30-31) with New England favored for greatest accumulation. Extended models agree modified arctic air spreading east of the Rockies this coming week represents the final unseasonably cold temperatures of the spring series. Less extreme cold air shifting into the Southwest next weekend in a reinforcing manner, and frequent rain-induced cooling spreading across the rest of the Southern U.S. during the 1st week of April appear to represent re-establishment of sustained El Niño forcing and associated general north-south temperatures gradient across the U.S. However, NAO forecasts continue to shift negative which if verified will establish Atlantic blocking preventing return of extreme or sustained warmth across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. anywhere near record levels observed in early March. Warmer conditions (relative to average) are likely in the Pacific Northwest, but temperatures across the rest of the U.S. are forecast to fluctuate within the narrowest range of spring, (primarily single digit anomalies) through most if not all of April.  


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