New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
November 18 - Long Range Summary
The coldest air of the season flooding the West this past weekend spread into the central U.S. early this week, but temperatures west of the Rockies will be slow to moderate as additional snow-producing storms track through mainly northern portions of the region this week. While another multiday warming trend underway across the Midwest and East is forecast to peak temperatures 10°-15° above average during the 1st half of this week, a pair of progressively colder and wetter late week storms are certain to end above average warmth for the longest consecutive day stretch of fall. During this prolonged cool period latest models extend through the entire final week of November the 1st snow of the season is also forecast in portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and interior Northeast. Both cold air intensity and Eastern snow appear underdone in recent modeling as forecasts struggle with strong dynamics associated with an unseasonably cold closed low set to deepen between the northern Plains and Ohio Valley mid-late workweek before slowly lifting through the Northeast next weekend (Nov 23-24). Winter-like overnight low temperatures in the 30s extending deep into northern Texas and the Southeast by the end of this workweek will be especially noticeable after the unseasonably warm November still underway across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. and even daytime highs are considered likely to bottom out near 10° below average across most of the Midwest and East. Milder temperatures remain on track to return to the Eastern U.S. in early December while colder air lingering between western Canada and the Pacific Northwest air drains back into portions of the Southwest. However longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts spread this next notably colder Western airmass back into the Eastern U.S. during the 2nd week of December generating another extended period of seasonal to moderately below average temperatures on the order of one full week or more, setting the stage for a colder start to winter than typical during La Niña.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.