New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
March 31 - Long Range Summary
Fundamental pattern change early this 1st week of April fully replaces last week’s record heat observed across most of the Western U.S. with well below average temperatures and substantial mountain snow measured in feet. Most of the Eastern half of the U.S. remains predominated by well above average temperatures, with exception of an increasing expanse across the northern tier including the Great Lakes and Northeast where periodic cold Canadian air reinforcement persists prompting NWS Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in place this past weekend to be extended into this week. Improved extended range model alignment increases confidence next weekend (Apr 5-6) marks onset of prolonged winter-like cold (and snow) spreading progressively deeper into the Eastern half of the U.S. through midmonth, including double-digit below average temperatures deep into the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. Since extended range model forecasts only recently latched onto return of winter-like conditions east of the Rockies during the 2nd week of April, subsequent runs are likely to increase intensity, coverage, and duration of well below average temperatures and very late season snow. Latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts prolong winter-level cold air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. into the start of the 3rd week of April (Apr 13-16) before the next milder pattern shift begins aloft. However late month temperature moderation at the surface is likely to be very slow, especially if snowcover extends deep into the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. All of this ensures April will verify markedly colder than March, potentially within the top-10 coldest on record east of the Rockies.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.