New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
April 21 - Long Range Summary
Canadian air surged into the Upper Midwest and Northeast during the past weekend cooling daytime high temperatures sharply (30° in 24-hours in Chicago). Unlike earlier in April this cold air outbreak is only slightly below average due to strong warming immediately ahead of the surface cold front which produced the warmest temperatures of the year across the Northeast yesterday (mainly 70s-80s), and little to no cooling penetrated farther south into a more resilient warm airmass entrenched in the Southeast. Warm air residing in the South ensures below average temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast will remain brief and quickly warm again by Tuesday, in a milder spring-like pattern maintaining late April temperatures mainly between seasonal and slightly above average levels. The West is also warming quickly in the wake of last weekend’s winter storm which produced widespread 15°-20° below average temperatures and substantial snow deep in the southern Rockies. Additional Pacific storms lined up to move into the West are significantly milder focusing seasonal to slightly below average temperatures mainly along the West Coast through late April. Spring-like volatility clouds the picture in longer range forecasts, but most extended range models are latching onto the next fundamental pattern transition early in the 1st week of May shifting periodic weak cooling (seasonal- slightly below average) to the Great Lakes and Northeast, which latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts maintain into late May. The Plains and Midwest remain the focus of heaviest spring rainfall which will be important to monitor going into summer, but reversal of expansive drought in the West and Plains is unlikely favoring these west central regions for early onset of summer-level heat before May is out.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.