MWA 30 day Forecast:
The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.
Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.
Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.
MWA – 90 day Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
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November 28 - Long Range Summary
Relatively mild temperatures in place across most of the U.S. this past weekend (despite widespread rainfall) are certain to plummet more than 15° degrees below average starting in the northwest quadrant of the country early this week. However, unlike most of November which was coldest for longest west of the Rockies, the opposite U.S. temperature gradient is anticipated to predominate December. Arctic air is of high forecast confidence to focus east of the Rockies the longest in December, more directly into the Midwest and East starting during the 2nd week of the month. Before then temperature volatility driven by fast moving coast to coast tracking storms is likely to average somewhat cooler than models forecast, especially across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal) as progressively colder air in their wake outweighs brief warming peaking during their approach. All extended range models flood the majority of the Eastern U.S. with cold air of varying intensity during the 11-15 day period, but all recent forecasts are considered too mild. Strong and prolonged high latitude blocking directing frigid arctic air across snow covered Canada with very little modification (weakening) along the way sets the stage for the coldest mid-late December in several years across the Midwest and East.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.