MWA 30 day Forecast:
The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.
Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.
Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.
MWA – 90 day Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
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June 27 - Long Range Summary
Canadian air draining into the Eastern half of the country at the start of this week marks onset of noticeably milder conditions ending multiday periods of excessive heat observed during most of June. This does not preclude briefer surges of significant heat as recent model consensus warms the Great Lakes and Northeast back into the 90s at the end of this workweek (Thursday and Friday respectively), before cool air returns next weekend (Jul 2-3). Meanwhile the hottest temperatures of summer underway along the West Coast (including 100s in portions of the Pacific Northwest) will linger into midweek before also subsiding during the latter half of this week. Models are exhibiting much greater divergence than typical across all forecast periods as successive runs struggle with faster low amplitude flow. When averaged over multiday time scales near seasonal temperatures are forecast across the Eastern half of the U.S. most of this week, before sustained above average heat resumes across the South (upper 90s-low 100s) during the 6-10 day period. Cool Canadian air will be slowest to fully depart the Northeast until after the 11-15 day period, but once it does longer range models maintain above average temperatures across the entire Midwest, South, and East in a near sustained manner during the latter half of July at the climatological peak of summer heat.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.