MWA 30 day Forecast:
The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.
Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.
Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.
MWA – 90 day Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
For more information contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
April 15 - Long Range Summary
A slow-moving Pacific disturbance responsible for the past few days of heavy low elevation rain and mountain snow in portions of the West will eject east of the Rockies late Monday night. Unseasonably warm air flooding the Eastern half of the U.S. ahead of this system forecast to peak in the 70s across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (~15° above average) during the 1st half of this week are more typical of late May than mid April. However models which were slow to latch onto the pattern reversing nature of the approaching Western disturbance shifted markedly colder in latest runs, and are likely not yet cold enough across the Eastern half of the U.S. in forecasts valid from midweek into the start of week 2 (Apr 18-22). Substantial temperature drops over 30° relative to the warm start to the coming week ensure widespread double-digit below average temperatures which may include overnight freeze or frost conditions (low-mid 30s) deep into the southern Plains and Southeast Friday through next weekend (Apr 19-21). The 6-10 day period is forecast to feature the coldest temperatures of April across the Eastern half of the U.S. while the West warms sharply including upper 90s across the Desert Southwest (10°-15° above average). While Western warmth is forecast to begin spreading into the central U.S. early next week (Apr 22-23) models generally agree temperature moderation along the Eastern Seaboard will be slowest delaying return of above average temperatures through the end of April. However, longer range forecasts valid early-mid May are trending warmer and drier across the Great Lakes and Northeast setting the stage for an early start to summer-level heat across the regions.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.