New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

June 27 - Long Range Summary

Canadian air draining into the Eastern half of the country at the start of this week marks onset of noticeably milder conditions ending multiday periods of excessive heat observed during most of June.  This does not preclude briefer surges of significant heat as recent model consensus warms the Great Lakes and Northeast back into the 90s at the end of this workweek (Thursday and Friday respectively), before cool air returns next weekend (Jul 2-3). Meanwhile the hottest temperatures of summer underway along the West Coast (including 100s in portions of the Pacific Northwest) will linger into midweek before also subsiding during the latter half of this week. Models are exhibiting much greater divergence than typical across all forecast periods as successive runs struggle with faster low amplitude flow. When averaged over multiday time scales near seasonal temperatures are forecast across the Eastern half of the U.S. most of this week, before sustained above average heat resumes across the South (upper 90s-low 100s) during the 6-10 day period. Cool Canadian air will be slowest to fully depart the Northeast until after the 11-15 day period, but once it does longer range models maintain above average temperatures across the entire Midwest, South, and East in a near sustained manner during the latter half of July at the climatological peak of summer heat.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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