New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

April 15 - Long Range Summary

A slow-moving Pacific disturbance responsible for the past few days of heavy low elevation rain and mountain snow in portions of the West will eject east of the Rockies late Monday night. Unseasonably warm air flooding the Eastern half of the U.S. ahead of this system forecast to peak in the 70s across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (~15° above average) during the 1st half of this week are more typical of late May than mid April.  However models which were slow to latch onto the pattern reversing nature of the approaching Western disturbance shifted markedly colder in latest runs, and are likely not yet cold enough across the Eastern half of the U.S. in forecasts valid from midweek into the start of week 2 (Apr 18-22). Substantial temperature drops over 30° relative to the warm start to the coming week ensure widespread double-digit below average temperatures which may include overnight freeze or frost conditions (low-mid 30s) deep into the southern Plains  and Southeast Friday through next weekend (Apr 19-21). The 6-10 day period is forecast to feature the coldest temperatures of April across the Eastern half of the U.S. while the West warms sharply including upper 90s across the Desert Southwest (10°-15° above average). While Western warmth is forecast to begin spreading into the central U.S. early next week (Apr 22-23) models generally agree temperature moderation along the Eastern Seaboard will be slowest delaying return of above average temperatures through the end of April. However, longer range forecasts valid early-mid May are trending warmer and drier across the Great Lakes and Northeast setting the stage for an early start to summer-level heat across the regions.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398