New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

June 10 - Long Range Summary

Canadian air draining east of the Rockies ensured a noticeably cool start to this week by early summer standards all the way from the southern Plains through the entire Midwest to the northern mid Atlantic region and Northeast.  Now that Eastern pattern change completed model forecasts agree Monday will represent the coldest day of the next 2-weeks. Late week warming east of the Rockies will be gradual and limited in duration before near record heat reloading across most of the West by midweek (with exception of the cooler Pacific Northwest) spreads east of the Rockies during the 6-10 day period to peak in the low-mid 90s across the Great Lakes and Northeast for multiple days next week. Longer range forecasts indicate the core of greatest heat will shift westward between the Upper Midwest and northern Plains during the 11-15 day period. However, significantly drier conditions accompanying next week’s substantial surge of heat east of the Rockies is part of far more stable summerlike flow anticipated to preclude return of unseasonably cold air through the rest of June. Models focus lingering less widespread rain into the Upper Midwest and along the Gulf Coast which may periodically cool these regions near seasonal temperatures but longer range forecast confidence is increased drier conditions overall compared to spring and the start to June, coupled with persistent summerlike low amplitude flow aloft, set the stage for progressive warming of near sustained above average temperatures through July.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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