New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
September 18 - Long Range Summary
One final surge of cold Canadian air of the extended September series draining into the Midwest (7°-10° below average) this past weekend ensures a cool and wet 1st half of the week across the Northeast. However, at the same time colder and wetter pattern change starting in the West is certain to shift summer-like heat out of the Pacific Northwest (mid 80s-mid 90s) eastward in a modifying (weakening) form; warming Midwestern temperatures near 80° by midweek, and the Northeast to the mid 70s by the end of the workweek. Similar level modest warmth (3°-6° above average) is forecast to return to the central and southern Plains early this week (low-mid 90s in most of Texas). Meanwhile slightly below average temperatures in most of the Southeast to mid Atlantic region this week appear slowest to recover near seasonal levels (low-mid 80s)late in the 6-10 day period. Precipitation is far less certain amongst models and from run to run of the same model but longer range forecasts maintain relatively mild temperatures east of the Rockies into mid October, and even the cooler West recovers to seasonal temperatures starting late next weekend (Sep 24). At this point there is no substantially cold air in sight building across North America suggesting temperatures across most of the U.S. will remain slightly – moderately above average through most if not all of the latter half of fall.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.