New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
July 22 - Long Range Summary
Sharp west – east contrast in place across the U.S. is certain to persist into the middle of this week; separating excessive triple digit heat in most of the West, from mild below average temperatures by midsummer standards (mainly 80s) across the majority of Midwest, South, and East. Now that the anomalous amplified pattern driving these temperature anomalies is near peak model forecasts aligned markedly with important aspects of relaxation back to widespread summerlike flow before July is over. Not only are all extended range models fully onboard with eastward expansion of Western heat this week across the northern half of the U.S. all the way to the East Coast by next weekend (Jul 27-28), but recent forecasts are significantly hotter across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast with most generating a heatwave (3 consecutive days or more of 90s) into early the following week (Jul 29-30). Model forecasts valid during the 11-15 day period (early August) are less aligned but all generate varying degree of moderation across the Midwest (seasonal at best), after which longer range guidance re-establishes well above average heat for a much longer period into late August. Seasonably cool and wet conditions currently focusing between the southern half of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley are forecast to linger the longest into the 1st week of August, but drier conditions and above average temperatures are on track to resume and predominate the majority of the final month of summer. Models are also weaker and briefer with temperature moderation across the West; including coldest areas of the Pacific Northwest which only drop slightly below average this workweek, before warming to less extreme but prolonged above average temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) starting by the coming weekend (Jul 27-28).
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.