New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
February 10 - Long Range Summary
A cold front diving through Texas late this past weekend marks effective end to sharp temperature contrast observed the past several days separating arctic air in the north central U.S. (~30° below average) from record heat observed across the Deep South (80s-90s). Now that significant expansion of unseasonably cold arctic air and snowcover are actually underway in the central U.S. greatly improved model consensus cools most of the western two thirds of the U.S. from the interior Pacific Northwest to the Mississippi Valley the greatest this week (20°-30° below average), after which the core of coldest air shifts eastward into the Midwest and East early next week (Feb 16-20) . Model alignment cooling the Eastern U.S. greatest during the 3rd week of February is the closest yet to longstanding 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts, adding support to latest MWA ensemble forecasts which are slowest to moderate the Midwest and East maintaining well below average temperatures into the start of the final week of the month (11-15 day period). At this point there are no signs of additional arctic air outbreaks reaching the U.S. in an intense or prolonged manner through early March. However, the combination of widespread snowcover expansion in February and lingering La Niña conditions are a recipe for persistence of seasonably cold and quite wet early spring conditions across the majority of the northern U.S. Meanwhile fairly mild Southern U.S. conditions resuming by late February are likely to fluctuate between seasonal and moderately above average temperatures through early spring.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.