Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
March 31 - Long Range Summary
Fundamental pattern change early this 1st week of April fully replaces last week’s record heat observed across most of the Western U.S. with well below average temperatures and substantial mountain snow measured in feet. Most of the Eastern half of the U.S. remains predominated by well above average temperatures, with exception of an increasing expanse across the northern tier including the Great Lakes and Northeast where periodic cold Canadian air reinforcement persists prompting NWS Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in place this past weekend to be extended into this week. Improved extended range model alignment increases confidence next weekend (Apr 5-6) marks onset of prolonged winter-like cold (and snow) spreading progressively deeper into the Eastern half of the U.S. through midmonth, including double-digit below average temperatures deep into the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. Since extended range model forecasts only recently latched onto return of winter-like conditions east of the Rockies during the 2nd week of April, subsequent runs are likely to increase intensity, coverage, and duration of well below average temperatures and very late season snow. Latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts prolong winter-level cold air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. into the start of the 3rd week of April (Apr 13-16) before the next milder pattern shift begins aloft. However late month temperature moderation at the surface is likely to be very slow, especially if snowcover extends deep into the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. All of this ensures April will verify markedly colder than March, potentially within the top-10 coldest on record east of the Rockies.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.