Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
January 13 - Long Range Summary
As the next arctic airmass of the extended January series surged into the north-central U.S. late this past weekend models shifted markedly colder throughout the entire eastern half of the country to the Gulf and East Coasts in forecasts valid the 1st half of this week, ensuring yet another several day period of 15°-20° below average temperatures anomalies at the climatological peak of winter. Little time will be available for moderation before an even more intense arctic airmass (coldest of winter) dives between the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend (Jan 18-19). This is the 1st arctic air outbreak of January to enter the U.S. west of the Rockies which ensures fast reversal of above average warmth observed along the West Coast during the 1st half of winter. Westward displaced entry of arctic air typically sets stage for progressive modification (weakening) as this cold air spreads east of the Rockies to the Gulf and East Coasts during the 3rd full week of the month (Jan 19-25). However, in this case models significantly limit temperature moderation with ECMWF 11-15 day forecasts coldest across the East, especially the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast where additional snow is likely. Longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble continue to interpret this as the final multiday period of below average temperatures across the central and Eastern U.S. extending into the start of the final week of January, before arctic air steadily contracts into western Canada late month consistent with recent development of La Niña adding confidence to a relatively mild start to February.
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