Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
April 28 - Long Range Summary
Hottest temperatures of the year near certain to peak across the Northeast (mainly low 80s) Tuesday are just as certain to remain brief as all models direct noticeably cooler seasonal-level air back into the region midweek along with rain. All models agree colder below average temperatures will focus into the Midwest Wednesday, but absence of a source of significant cold air limits magnitude primarily to single digit mean temperature anomalies at a time climatological highs are rising into the 70s. Typical of spring models are highly volatile in focus and quantity of rainfall but recent trends are notably wetter (cooler) across the Southwest to the southern Plains (especially Texas and Oklahoma), while forecasts across most of the Southeast are drier (warmer). Beneficial rainfall forecast in driest areas across the southwest quadrant of the U.S. appears likely to delay early onset of summer-level heat, but that is not the case farther north as all extended range models focus greatest heat between the northern Great Basin and northern Plains (80s) in early May. Of significance in recent model forecasts is far less eastward expansion of this unseasonably warm airmass into the Great Lakes or Northeast than most prior model runs indicated. This cooler government model shift is the closest yet to repetitive Eastern trough reinforcement consistently forecast by the 30-day MWA ensemble between May 3 and the end of the month, likely precluding strong or prolonged Eastern heat into the start of June.
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