Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
November 18 - Long Range Summary
The coldest air of the season flooding the West this past weekend spread into the central U.S. early this week, but temperatures west of the Rockies will be slow to moderate as additional snow-producing storms track through mainly northern portions of the region this week. While another multiday warming trend underway across the Midwest and East is forecast to peak temperatures 10°-15° above average during the 1st half of this week, a pair of progressively colder and wetter late week storms are certain to end above average warmth for the longest consecutive day stretch of fall. During this prolonged cool period latest models extend through the entire final week of November the 1st snow of the season is also forecast in portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and interior Northeast. Both cold air intensity and Eastern snow appear underdone in recent modeling as forecasts struggle with strong dynamics associated with an unseasonably cold closed low set to deepen between the northern Plains and Ohio Valley mid-late workweek before slowly lifting through the Northeast next weekend (Nov 23-24). Winter-like overnight low temperatures in the 30s extending deep into northern Texas and the Southeast by the end of this workweek will be especially noticeable after the unseasonably warm November still underway across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. and even daytime highs are considered likely to bottom out near 10° below average across most of the Midwest and East. Milder temperatures remain on track to return to the Eastern U.S. in early December while colder air lingering between western Canada and the Pacific Northwest air drains back into portions of the Southwest. However longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts spread this next notably colder Western airmass back into the Eastern U.S. during the 2nd week of December generating another extended period of seasonal to moderately below average temperatures on the order of one full week or more, setting the stage for a colder start to winter than typical during La Niña.
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