Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
December 16 - Long Range Summary
Below average temperatures lingering in the Northeast this past weekend are not extreme but are several degrees colder than models forecast as arctic air typically erodes slowly. Warming in the wake of last week’s intense arctic air outbreak will continue to be limited through the 1st half of this coming week by snow and/or ice events models forecast across the northern U.S. and as far south as the southern Appalachians as several milder Pacific storms eject east of the Rockies. More importantly a strong midweek storm exiting the East Coast is forecast to tap into the coldest arctic airmass yet in Canada virtually ensuring plummeting late week temperatures across the Eastern 3rd of the country extending deep into the Southeast and Florida at 15° below average intensity or greater by this weekend (Dec 21-22). Unlike most arctic air outbreaks observed since Thanksgiving a less intense glancing blow of cold air spilling into the central U.S. will only produce slightly below average temperatures across Texas. Milder temperatures in the central-southern Plains are related to much warmer model shifts across Western North America generating several days of record warmth across the Desert Southwest (near 80°) during the latter half of this week. Longer range implications of strong Western warming scouring arctic air out of western Canada extend milder flow across the Eastern half of the U.S. potentially producing the longest stretch of above average temperatures yet this winter between the end of December into early January. Latest 30-day MWA ensemble runs also latched onto this warmer 11-15 day signal, but still sharply cool the Eastern U.S. below average much of January starting early in the 2nd week of the month. In support latest CFSv2 model mean January forecasts continue to trend colder favoring predominance of seasonal to below average midwinter temperatures east of the Rockies.
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