Melita Weather Associates

For more than a decade, the most accurate weather forecasts over any time scale have come from only one source, and that is the experienced Meteorologists that comprise Melita Weather Associates (MWA).

Below is just one of the large suite of computer generated meteorological forecasts generated by our proprietary 30 day ensemble model.

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Long Range Forecast Summary

September 12 Update: Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the country in late September to delay return of sustained above average warmth until closer to mid October.

For information on subscribing to or receiving a free 2 week trial of MWA 30 day and 90 day forecast newsletters, or our large suite of computer model upper air and surface forecast data out to 30 days please contact:

MWA does not simply repackage or reformat the same freely available weather forecast computer model output, or attempt to deliver that same consistently erroneous Government data to you a minute or 2 faster each day. There are plenty of so called “weather providers” out there to choose from made up primarily of computer programmers as opposed to experienced Meteorologists. More than one of or our world-renown Atmospheric Scientists have been conducting specialized research for more than 50 years.

The 3 lead Meteorologists comprising MWA are Dave Melita, Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook. Together they bring a unique alliance of meteorological expertise to the table at an opportune time to enhance long range weather forecasts using a proprietary model based on the most sophisticated atmospheric computer model in the world developed over a span of decades at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado. The NCAR model is actually a group of 4 distinct stand alone models known as the Community Climate System 3.

The links that follow will describe aspects of the proprietary and innovative computer model that we have developed. We strongly believe its introduction into the operational forecast environment will forever change the process in which operational weather forecasts are prepared, and the manner in which energy and agricultural trading concerns utilize forecasts in their daily business.

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November 4 - Long Range Summary

Seasonably cold Canadian air focusing through the Great Lakes and Northeast this past weekend is transient and will be followed by fast and strong warming by Tuesday. Meanwhile another cold winter-like airmass settling into the West marks start of several days of double-digit below average temperature anomalies and additional mountain snow set to predominate the week. Unseasonably warm Eastern U.S. temperatures peaking during the 1st half of this week are forecast to exceed 10° above average across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast. Wetter conditions (and severe weather) already underway across the central U.S. after the near record dry October observed east of the Rockies represent limitation to above average daytime high temperatures (mainly 60s), but mid 70s forecast across the drier Northeast may again approach record levels. NHC is monitoring tropical development in the western Caribbean which recent modeling is intensifying to the next hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by midweek which appears headed for landfall along the central Gulf Coast Friday or Saturday (Nov 8-9). Uncertain interaction between the potential landfalling tropical cyclone and the cold Western system forecast to eject east of the Rockies about the same time has recent models struggling with details of the next noticeable cold air outbreak set to focus through the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. during the latter half of this week. Operational model forecasts valid late this week (Nov 8-9) are several degrees colder than ensemble means across the majority of the Midwest and East but all forecasts agree noticeably cooler (and wetter) conditions will persist into the start of the following week (Nov 11-12) before the next Eastern warm-up can begin. However, at the same time all extended range models establish lower amplitude flow in mid November ending frequent winter-like cold air outbreaks into the West. This is a more persistent and expansive seasonably mild signal nearly from coast to coast into the start of December, during which longer range models continue to focus greatest magnitude above average temperatures into the north central U.S.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398