Melita Weather Associates

For more than a decade, the most accurate weather forecasts over any time scale have come from only one source, and that is the experienced Meteorologists that comprise Melita Weather Associates (MWA).

Below is just one of the large suite of computer generated meteorological forecasts generated by our proprietary 30 day ensemble model.

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Long Range Forecast Summary

September 12 Update: Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the country in late September to delay return of sustained above average warmth until closer to mid October.

For information on subscribing to or receiving a free 2 week trial of MWA 30 day and 90 day forecast newsletters, or our large suite of computer model upper air and surface forecast data out to 30 days please contact:

MWA does not simply repackage or reformat the same freely available weather forecast computer model output, or attempt to deliver that same consistently erroneous Government data to you a minute or 2 faster each day. There are plenty of so called “weather providers” out there to choose from made up primarily of computer programmers as opposed to experienced Meteorologists. More than one of or our world-renown Atmospheric Scientists have been conducting specialized research for more than 50 years.

The 3 lead Meteorologists comprising MWA are Dave Melita, Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook. Together they bring a unique alliance of meteorological expertise to the table at an opportune time to enhance long range weather forecasts using a proprietary model based on the most sophisticated atmospheric computer model in the world developed over a span of decades at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado. The NCAR model is actually a group of 4 distinct stand alone models known as the Community Climate System 3.

The links that follow will describe aspects of the proprietary and innovative computer model that we have developed. We strongly believe its introduction into the operational forecast environment will forever change the process in which operational weather forecasts are prepared, and the manner in which energy and agricultural trading concerns utilize forecasts in their daily business.

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February 26 - Long Range Summary

Arctic air which surged through the Great lakes and Northeast late last week briefly generating double-digit below average temperature anomalies is considered likely to be the final winter-like cold airmass to reach the Eastern U.S. until next fall or winter. Progressive (fast) flow already scoured the transient arctic airmass out of the East late this present weekend, while record warmth continues to expand across more of the Plains and Midwest at 25°-35° above average intensity. Unseasonably warm central U.S. temperatures more typical of May than February are on the way eastward to peak near 70° as far north as Chicago and in the 60s across most of the Northeast during the 1st half of this week. Meanwhile air conditioners already running due to mid-upper 80° heat underway across the south central U.S. centered on Texas will be needed into Tuesday as temperatures peak in mid 90s ahead of a strong cold front ejecting out of the West Tuesday night. This colder air will be most intense across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. before progressively moderating as it spreads east of the Rockies, producing only seasonal to slightly below average temperatures at best across the Midwest Wednesday and the Northeast Thursday.  More importantly all models agree below average or seasonal temperatures in any one region of the U.S. this week will remain brief (1-2 days), before quickly reversing back to well above average levels for several consecutive days ahead of a weaker cold airmass poised to progressively shift from coast to coast next week (Mar 3-9). Longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble indicate the 2nd half of March will not be as anomalously warm as the unseasonably warm start to spring across the eastern half of the U.S. However mainly precipitation-induced cooling devoid of arctic air favors the Southeast for coldest temperatures in late March (slightly –moderately below average), while most of the U.S. remains seasonably warm typical of El Niño.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398