Melita Weather Associates

For more than a decade, the most accurate weather forecasts over any time scale have come from only one source, and that is the experienced Meteorologists that comprise Melita Weather Associates (MWA).

Below is just one of the large suite of computer generated meteorological forecasts generated by our proprietary 30 day ensemble model.

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Long Range Forecast Summary

September 12 Update: Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the country in late September to delay return of sustained above average warmth until closer to mid October.

For information on subscribing to or receiving a free 2 week trial of MWA 30 day and 90 day forecast newsletters, or our large suite of computer model upper air and surface forecast data out to 30 days please contact:

MWA does not simply repackage or reformat the same freely available weather forecast computer model output, or attempt to deliver that same consistently erroneous Government data to you a minute or 2 faster each day. There are plenty of so called “weather providers” out there to choose from made up primarily of computer programmers as opposed to experienced Meteorologists. More than one of or our world-renown Atmospheric Scientists have been conducting specialized research for more than 50 years.

The 3 lead Meteorologists comprising MWA are Dave Melita, Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook. Together they bring a unique alliance of meteorological expertise to the table at an opportune time to enhance long range weather forecasts using a proprietary model based on the most sophisticated atmospheric computer model in the world developed over a span of decades at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado. The NCAR model is actually a group of 4 distinct stand alone models known as the Community Climate System 3.

The links that follow will describe aspects of the proprietary and innovative computer model that we have developed. We strongly believe its introduction into the operational forecast environment will forever change the process in which operational weather forecasts are prepared, and the manner in which energy and agricultural trading concerns utilize forecasts in their daily business.

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July 15 - Long Range Summary

NWS Excessive Heat Warnings or Advisories stretching nearly coast to coast this past weekend marked start of the 3rd widespread heatwave this summer forecast to peak temperatures in the 90s as far north as the Great Lakes and Northeast (near 10° above average) through the 1st half of this week. All mid-late week model forecasts shift wetter and cooler to varying degree across the Midwest, South, and East, albeit forecast consensus is weakest with cooling in the Northeast where less extreme above average heat (mid-upper 80s) and humidity (dewpoints in the 60s) persist to predominate the climatological peak of summer. Meanwhile wettest and coolest conditions forecast across a wide swath of the southeast quadrant of the country (seasonal-slightly below average) from the central and southern Plains to the Southeast coast need to be monitored as a potential prolonged mild signal through the remainder of summer. This is because all models shifted progressively wetter across the Southeast in recent weekend runs and latest forecasts may not yet be wet enough. If wettest models verify then the hottest part of summer may end after the 1st half of this coming week between eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley to most of the Gulf Coast where saturated soils already exist.  However, that is not the case in the West where the next widespread and prolonged excessive heatwave is already underway, featuring triple digit temperatures from interior California to most of the Canadian border between interior Washington and eastern Montana, with near record 120° heat in the Desert Southwest. At this point there is no end in sight to well above average Western heat, including Southwestern areas typically moderated by monsoon rainfall which continues to verify less widespread and of lower accumulation than climatology.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398