Melita Weather Associates
For more than a decade, the most accurate weather forecasts over any time scale have come from only one source, and that is the experienced Meteorologists that comprise Melita Weather Associates (MWA).
Below is just one of the large suite of computer generated meteorological forecasts generated by our proprietary 30 day ensemble model.
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Long Range Forecast Summary
September 12 Update: Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the country in late September to delay return of sustained above average warmth until closer to mid October.
For information on subscribing to or receiving a free 2 week trial of MWA 30 day and 90 day forecast newsletters, or our large suite of computer model upper air and surface forecast data out to 30 days please contact:
MWA does not simply repackage or reformat the same freely available weather forecast computer model output, or attempt to deliver that same consistently erroneous Government data to you a minute or 2 faster each day. There are plenty of so called “weather providers” out there to choose from made up primarily of computer programmers as opposed to experienced Meteorologists. More than one of or our world-renown Atmospheric Scientists have been conducting specialized research for more than 50 years.
The 3 lead Meteorologists comprising MWA are Dave Melita, Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook. Together they bring a unique alliance of meteorological expertise to the table at an opportune time to enhance long range weather forecasts using a proprietary model based on the most sophisticated atmospheric computer model in the world developed over a span of decades at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado. The NCAR model is actually a group of 4 distinct stand alone models known as the Community Climate System 3.
The links that follow will describe aspects of the proprietary and innovative computer model that we have developed. We strongly believe its introduction into the operational forecast environment will forever change the process in which operational weather forecasts are prepared, and the manner in which energy and agricultural trading concerns utilize forecasts in their daily business.
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December 30 - Long Range Summary
The mild end of December across the vast majority of the U.S. is of increased confidence to be followed by the coldest January observed in a decade or more across the Eastern half of the U.S. As large scale pattern change set to begin during the 1st week of January draws closer improving model forecasts establish sustained arctic air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. persisting 2-weeks or more. A progressive step down in temperatures is already underway in the northern Plains where recent 20° above average warmth is effectively over with arrival of near seasonal temperatures late last weekend. Key to the January forecast overall is the fact no recent model runs direct the core of far more extreme arctic air poised to begin entering the northern U.S. midweek (Jan1-2) west of the Rockies. Instead model convergence directing the core of arctic air deep into the Midwest and Ohio Valley ensures far less modification (warming) of frigid air along its south and east trajectory deep into the Southeast into northern-central Florida where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings will likely be issued valid this coming weekend (Jan 4-5). The Eastern Seaboard where unseasonably warm temperatures are peaking early this week (Dec 30-31) will also cool below average next weekend, followed by progressive cooling near 10° below average by early the following week (Jan 6-7) according to government model consensus. At the same time the majority of the Midwest including Chicago is forecast even colder (~15° below average), and more importantly little time will be available for minor warming before longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble plummet temperatures even colder (near 20° below average) by Jan 12 as this 2nd reinforcing frigid arctic airmass in less than one week also encompasses most of Texas. Sustained double-digit below average temperatures forecast throughout the majority of the Eastern half of the U.S. during the 2nd week of January at the climatological peak of winter are extreme, and near certain to moderate slower than models forecast over significant snowcover expansion also anticipated early-mid January.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.