Observed Weather:
It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
Melita Forecast:
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
NWS Forecast:
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
Analysis:
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
Begin your 2-week free trial subscription to the MWA 30-day forecast newsletter and our proprietary computer generated 30-day ensemble forecasts. Email us to start today.
March 31 - Long Range Summary
Fundamental pattern change early this 1st week of April fully replaces last week’s record heat observed across most of the Western U.S. with well below average temperatures and substantial mountain snow measured in feet. Most of the Eastern half of the U.S. remains predominated by well above average temperatures, with exception of an increasing expanse across the northern tier including the Great Lakes and Northeast where periodic cold Canadian air reinforcement persists prompting NWS Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in place this past weekend to be extended into this week. Improved extended range model alignment increases confidence next weekend (Apr 5-6) marks onset of prolonged winter-like cold (and snow) spreading progressively deeper into the Eastern half of the U.S. through midmonth, including double-digit below average temperatures deep into the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. Since extended range model forecasts only recently latched onto return of winter-like conditions east of the Rockies during the 2nd week of April, subsequent runs are likely to increase intensity, coverage, and duration of well below average temperatures and very late season snow. Latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts prolong winter-level cold air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. into the start of the 3rd week of April (Apr 13-16) before the next milder pattern shift begins aloft. However late month temperature moderation at the surface is likely to be very slow, especially if snowcover extends deep into the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. All of this ensures April will verify markedly colder than March, potentially within the top-10 coldest on record east of the Rockies.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.