Observed Weather:
It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
Melita Forecast:
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
NWS Forecast:
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
Analysis:
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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February 19 - Long Range Summary
The coldest air of the season in place across the central U.S. (35°-40° below average) is quickly spreading south and east into the Deep South and the Northeast with only minor modification (weakening) over widespread snowpack which is also still expanding behind 2 distinct winter storms lined up to track from the Rockies to the mid Atlantic coast through the end of this week. NWS Extreme Cold Warnings and Advisories valid today across nearly the entire Eastern half of the U.S. (including the western and central Gulf Coast) are certain to be extended as all models maintain extreme double-digit below average anomalies through the end of this workweek. While this intense level of cold air at the surface can only be slow to moderate through the coming weekend (Feb 22-23) faster pattern change aloft is certain to intensify above average warmth already building across the Desert Southwest (70s-80s) near record levels next week (90s), and spread this warmth east of the Rockies in a progressively weaker form during the final week of February. In this scenario cold temperatures across the Plains from North Dakota to Texas reverse fastest and greatest, to double-digit above average anomalies by Monday, Feb 24. In contrast slower and far less intense warming across the Midwest and East (mainly 3°-6° above average) peaking later next week will also remain briefest and most prone to periodic moderate cooling into early March under lower heights aloft. Progressively greater forecast divergence separates extended range models with GFS forecasts currently coldest deep into the Midwest and East especially by the 11-15 day period. Unlike prior extended range modeling which attempted to substantially warm all of Canada all latest runs shifted notably colder north of the border, adding confidence to ultimate establishment of a north-south temperature gradient across the U.S. typical of La Niña. Longer range forecasts of both the CFSv2 model and 30-day MWA ensemble are latching onto this as leading to a markedly colder 2nd week of March featuring winter-like temperatures (highs mainly in the 30s) across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast strongly suggesting significant delay to the start of spring across the northeast quadrant of the U.S.
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