Observed Weather:
It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
Melita Forecast:
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
NWS Forecast:
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
Analysis:
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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January 13 - Long Range Summary
As the next arctic airmass of the extended January series surged into the north-central U.S. late this past weekend models shifted markedly colder throughout the entire eastern half of the country to the Gulf and East Coasts in forecasts valid the 1st half of this week, ensuring yet another several day period of 15°-20° below average temperatures anomalies at the climatological peak of winter. Little time will be available for moderation before an even more intense arctic airmass (coldest of winter) dives between the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend (Jan 18-19). This is the 1st arctic air outbreak of January to enter the U.S. west of the Rockies which ensures fast reversal of above average warmth observed along the West Coast during the 1st half of winter. Westward displaced entry of arctic air typically sets stage for progressive modification (weakening) as this cold air spreads east of the Rockies to the Gulf and East Coasts during the 3rd full week of the month (Jan 19-25). However, in this case models significantly limit temperature moderation with ECMWF 11-15 day forecasts coldest across the East, especially the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast where additional snow is likely. Longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble continue to interpret this as the final multiday period of below average temperatures across the central and Eastern U.S. extending into the start of the final week of January, before arctic air steadily contracts into western Canada late month consistent with recent development of La Niña adding confidence to a relatively mild start to February.
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