2008 Forecast Verification Summary
Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.
Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007
Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.
Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008
Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”
Dave’s June Forecast
Observed June 2008
November 28 - Long Range Summary
Relatively mild temperatures in place across most of the U.S. this past weekend (despite widespread rainfall) are certain to plummet more than 15° degrees below average starting in the northwest quadrant of the country early this week. However, unlike most of November which was coldest for longest west of the Rockies, the opposite U.S. temperature gradient is anticipated to predominate December. Arctic air is of high forecast confidence to focus east of the Rockies the longest in December, more directly into the Midwest and East starting during the 2nd week of the month. Before then temperature volatility driven by fast moving coast to coast tracking storms is likely to average somewhat cooler than models forecast, especially across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal) as progressively colder air in their wake outweighs brief warming peaking during their approach. All extended range models flood the majority of the Eastern U.S. with cold air of varying intensity during the 11-15 day period, but all recent forecasts are considered too mild. Strong and prolonged high latitude blocking directing frigid arctic air across snow covered Canada with very little modification (weakening) along the way sets the stage for the coldest mid-late December in several years across the Midwest and East.
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