2008 Forecast Verification Summary
Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.
Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007
Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.
Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008
Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”
Dave’s June Forecast
Observed June 2008
September 18 - Long Range Summary
One final surge of cold Canadian air of the extended September series draining into the Midwest (7°-10° below average) this past weekend ensures a cool and wet 1st half of the week across the Northeast. However, at the same time colder and wetter pattern change starting in the West is certain to shift summer-like heat out of the Pacific Northwest (mid 80s-mid 90s) eastward in a modifying (weakening) form; warming Midwestern temperatures near 80° by midweek, and the Northeast to the mid 70s by the end of the workweek. Similar level modest warmth (3°-6° above average) is forecast to return to the central and southern Plains early this week (low-mid 90s in most of Texas). Meanwhile slightly below average temperatures in most of the Southeast to mid Atlantic region this week appear slowest to recover near seasonal levels (low-mid 80s)late in the 6-10 day period. Precipitation is far less certain amongst models and from run to run of the same model but longer range forecasts maintain relatively mild temperatures east of the Rockies into mid October, and even the cooler West recovers to seasonal temperatures starting late next weekend (Sep 24). At this point there is no substantially cold air in sight building across North America suggesting temperatures across most of the U.S. will remain slightly – moderately above average through most if not all of the latter half of fall.
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