2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



April 8 - Long Range Summary

Exit of a slow moving late season winter storm (nor’easter) farther off the New England coast late this past weekend marks onset of noticeable warming, and effective end to the significant cold-biased pattern which predominated the Eastern half of the U.S. since mid March. Unseasonably warm temperatures peaking near or above 70° across most of the Great Lakes and Northeast (15° above average) early this week (Monday-Tuesday) will remain brief, before clouds and rain sharply cool daytime highs across the entire Midwest and East between seasonal and moderately below average levels during the latter half of the week (Apr 10-13) depending on uncertain model forecasts. Regardless of which model verifies the same widespread cloud cover and rain across the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. are certain to suppress overnight cooling, elevating minimum temperatures several degrees above average to still skew mean temperatures above average.  Meanwhile warmest U.S. temperatures are forecast across the Southwest late this workweek (Thursday and Friday) featuring mid 90s across the deserts (including Phoenix) which are about 10° above average and warmer than prior forecasts. Similar to modest midweek Eastern cooling another colder Southwestern rainstorm appears in all modeling next weekend (Apr 13-14), which later shifts into the East by early in the 11-15 day period (Apr 18). With minor cooler exceptions (mainly seasonal) all extended range models maintain this week’s warm-biased temperature range devoid of below average extremes into the start of the final week of April. Longer range guidance valid during the final week of April into the 1st week of May are not well aligned but appear to fully breakdown El Niño forcing and associated north-south temperature and precipitation gradients across the U.S. faster than previously anticipated. In this scenario a greater expanse of wet mid-late spring conditions include most of the northern U.S. limiting magnitude of above average temperatures to mainly single digits.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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