2008 Forecast Verification Summary
Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.
Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008
Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.
Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008
Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”
Dave’s June Forecast
Observed June 2008
March 17 - Long Range Summary
Severe thunderstorms with tornados across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. this past weekend included snow and winter-like cold in their wake observed deep into the central U.S. limiting daytime high temperatures near Chicago to the mid 30s. The next vigorous Pacific storm which moved onto the West Coast today is also near certain to produce blizzard conditions and 10° below average temperatures or greater deep into the central U.S. once it ejects east of the Rockies Wednesday, followed by sharp cooling across the Midwest and East at the end of this workweek (Mar 20-21). Spring- like volatility and the mild nature of Pacific flow flooding the U.S. between storms virtually ensure above average mean temperatures will continue to predominate several day periods across the Eastern half of the U.S. through the next full week. However markedly colder air is near certain to settle into the majority of the Midwest and East by Mar 26 in a more sustained manner, while the West warms (and dries). Greatly improved model forecast consensus completing full atmospheric pattern reversal early in the final week of March is the closest yet to long standing 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts, but government models appear far too fast to breakdown the colder Eastern pattern before March is over . Longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain most stable; maintaining unseasonably cold air reinforcement substantially longer into the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. throughout early April, including brief intervals of 10°-20° below average temperatures and late season snow across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Even typically warm biased CFSv2 model forecasts valid during the 1st week of April flipped temperatures several degrees below average, adding confidence to prolonged interruption to spring across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. until milder air can fully return in a sustained manner in late April.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.