2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



July 15 - Long Range Summary

NWS Excessive Heat Warnings or Advisories stretching nearly coast to coast this past weekend marked start of the 3rd widespread heatwave this summer forecast to peak temperatures in the 90s as far north as the Great Lakes and Northeast (near 10° above average) through the 1st half of this week. All mid-late week model forecasts shift wetter and cooler to varying degree across the Midwest, South, and East, albeit forecast consensus is weakest with cooling in the Northeast where less extreme above average heat (mid-upper 80s) and humidity (dewpoints in the 60s) persist to predominate the climatological peak of summer. Meanwhile wettest and coolest conditions forecast across a wide swath of the southeast quadrant of the country (seasonal-slightly below average) from the central and southern Plains to the Southeast coast need to be monitored as a potential prolonged mild signal through the remainder of summer. This is because all models shifted progressively wetter across the Southeast in recent weekend runs and latest forecasts may not yet be wet enough. If wettest models verify then the hottest part of summer may end after the 1st half of this coming week between eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley to most of the Gulf Coast where saturated soils already exist.  However, that is not the case in the West where the next widespread and prolonged excessive heatwave is already underway, featuring triple digit temperatures from interior California to most of the Canadian border between interior Washington and eastern Montana, with near record 120° heat in the Desert Southwest. At this point there is no end in sight to well above average Western heat, including Southwestern areas typically moderated by monsoon rainfall which continues to verify less widespread and of lower accumulation than climatology.


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