2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



April 15 - Long Range Summary

A slow-moving Pacific disturbance responsible for the past few days of heavy low elevation rain and mountain snow in portions of the West will eject east of the Rockies late Monday night. Unseasonably warm air flooding the Eastern half of the U.S. ahead of this system forecast to peak in the 70s across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (~15° above average) during the 1st half of this week are more typical of late May than mid April.  However models which were slow to latch onto the pattern reversing nature of the approaching Western disturbance shifted markedly colder in latest runs, and are likely not yet cold enough across the Eastern half of the U.S. in forecasts valid from midweek into the start of week 2 (Apr 18-22). Substantial temperature drops over 30° relative to the warm start to the coming week ensure widespread double-digit below average temperatures which may include overnight freeze or frost conditions (low-mid 30s) deep into the southern Plains  and Southeast Friday through next weekend (Apr 19-21). The 6-10 day period is forecast to feature the coldest temperatures of April across the Eastern half of the U.S. while the West warms sharply including upper 90s across the Desert Southwest (10°-15° above average). While Western warmth is forecast to begin spreading into the central U.S. early next week (Apr 22-23) models generally agree temperature moderation along the Eastern Seaboard will be slowest delaying return of above average temperatures through the end of April. However, longer range forecasts valid early-mid May are trending warmer and drier across the Great Lakes and Northeast setting the stage for an early start to summer-level heat across the regions.


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