2008 Forecast Verification Summary
Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.
Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007
![winter_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008 2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008](http://melitaweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/winter_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008.png)
2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008
![winter_precipitation_forcast_anomaly_2008 Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008](http://melitaweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/winter_precipitation_forcast_anomaly_2008.png)
Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008
Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.
Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008
![summer_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008 Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008](http://melitaweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/summer_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008.png)
Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008
![summer_precipitation_forcast_anomaly_2008 Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008](http://melitaweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/summer_precipitation_forcast_anomaly_2008.png)
Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008
Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”
Dave’s June Forecast
Observed June 2008
July 22 - Long Range Summary
Sharp west – east contrast in place across the U.S. is certain to persist into the middle of this week; separating excessive triple digit heat in most of the West, from mild below average temperatures by midsummer standards (mainly 80s) across the majority of Midwest, South, and East. Now that the anomalous amplified pattern driving these temperature anomalies is near peak model forecasts aligned markedly with important aspects of relaxation back to widespread summerlike flow before July is over. Not only are all extended range models fully onboard with eastward expansion of Western heat this week across the northern half of the U.S. all the way to the East Coast by next weekend (Jul 27-28), but recent forecasts are significantly hotter across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast with most generating a heatwave (3 consecutive days or more of 90s) into early the following week (Jul 29-30). Model forecasts valid during the 11-15 day period (early August) are less aligned but all generate varying degree of moderation across the Midwest (seasonal at best), after which longer range guidance re-establishes well above average heat for a much longer period into late August. Seasonably cool and wet conditions currently focusing between the southern half of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley are forecast to linger the longest into the 1st week of August, but drier conditions and above average temperatures are on track to resume and predominate the majority of the final month of summer. Models are also weaker and briefer with temperature moderation across the West; including coldest areas of the Pacific Northwest which only drop slightly below average this workweek, before warming to less extreme but prolonged above average temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) starting by the coming weekend (Jul 27-28).
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