Verification is very important for Long Range Weather forecasts or any forecast used for making business or investment decisions.

Unlike most weather data resellers, Melita Weather Associates runs a unique, proprietary forecast model. The Melita Weather Model is based on climate science and research models created for the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Starting with the science developed by NCAR we have invested years in creating, refining and running an operational model with 30 and 90 day horizons.

We are currently performing validation of the model output and are resulting forecasts.

These verification pages provide discussion of Melita forecasts and the seasonally observed weather patterns. Differences between Melita forecasts and National Weather Service long range forecasts are highlighted.

We are currently investing in numerical statistics comparing Melita long range temperature forecasts with NWS forecasts for the major energy markets in the United States. If you have questions about this data set, please contact us for more information.

November 28 - Long Range Summary

Relatively mild temperatures in place across most of the U.S. this past weekend (despite widespread rainfall) are certain to plummet more than 15° degrees below average starting in the northwest quadrant of the country early this week. However, unlike most of November which was coldest for longest west of the Rockies, the opposite U.S. temperature gradient is anticipated to predominate December. Arctic air is of high forecast confidence to focus east of the Rockies the longest in December, more directly into the Midwest and East starting during the 2nd week of the month. Before then temperature volatility driven by fast moving coast to coast tracking storms is likely to average somewhat cooler than models forecast, especially across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal) as progressively colder air in their wake outweighs brief warming peaking during their approach. All extended range models flood the majority of the Eastern U.S. with cold air of varying intensity during the 11-15 day period, but all recent forecasts are considered too mild. Strong and prolonged high latitude blocking directing frigid arctic air across snow covered Canada with very little modification (weakening) along the way sets the stage for the coldest mid-late December in several years across the Midwest and East.  

If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301
    direct 970.385.8695
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