Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]

September 18 - Long Range Summary

One final surge of cold Canadian air of the extended September series draining into the Midwest (7°-10° below average) this past weekend ensures a cool and wet 1st half of the week across the Northeast.  However, at the same time colder and wetter pattern change starting in the West is certain to shift summer-like heat out of the Pacific Northwest (mid 80s-mid 90s) eastward in a modifying (weakening) form; warming Midwestern temperatures near 80° by midweek, and the Northeast to the mid 70s by the end of the workweek. Similar level modest warmth (3°-6° above average) is forecast to return to the central and southern Plains early this week (low-mid 90s in most of Texas). Meanwhile slightly below average temperatures in most of the Southeast to mid Atlantic region this week appear slowest to recover near seasonal levels (low-mid 80s)late in the 6-10 day period. Precipitation is far less certain amongst models and from run to run of the same model but longer range forecasts maintain relatively mild temperatures east of the Rockies into mid October, and even the cooler West recovers to seasonal temperatures starting late next weekend (Sep 24). At this point there is no substantially cold air in sight building across North America suggesting temperatures across most of the U.S. will remain slightly – moderately above average through most if not all of the latter half of fall.

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