Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]

November 28 - Long Range Summary

Relatively mild temperatures in place across most of the U.S. this past weekend (despite widespread rainfall) are certain to plummet more than 15° degrees below average starting in the northwest quadrant of the country early this week. However, unlike most of November which was coldest for longest west of the Rockies, the opposite U.S. temperature gradient is anticipated to predominate December. Arctic air is of high forecast confidence to focus east of the Rockies the longest in December, more directly into the Midwest and East starting during the 2nd week of the month. Before then temperature volatility driven by fast moving coast to coast tracking storms is likely to average somewhat cooler than models forecast, especially across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal) as progressively colder air in their wake outweighs brief warming peaking during their approach. All extended range models flood the majority of the Eastern U.S. with cold air of varying intensity during the 11-15 day period, but all recent forecasts are considered too mild. Strong and prolonged high latitude blocking directing frigid arctic air across snow covered Canada with very little modification (weakening) along the way sets the stage for the coldest mid-late December in several years across the Midwest and East.  

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