Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]

March 20 - Long Range Summary

Winter-like arctic air in place across the entire Eastern half of the U.S. will linger longest over the Southeast into early Tuesday at near 20° below average intensity where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings remain in place. Meanwhile the central U.S. is already warming above average and this warmer airmass will reach  the Eastern U.S. midweek in milder southerly flow ahead of the next series of closely spaced Pacific storms lined up to move onto the West Coast at 36-48 hour intervals. The lead Western storm forecast to eject east of the Rockies midweek and the East Saturday will not tap into cold air nearly as intense as 20°-30° below average temperatures observed last week. However, very cold air by spring standards remains available over snow covered Canada to be tapped by the parade of coast to coast tracking storms to frequently cool temperatures across most of the Eastern half of the U.S. to at least moderately (7°-10°) below average levels starting during the latter half of this week. Several additional rounds of late season snow are also forecast across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. including a potential significant winter storm in the interior Northeast at the end of the 6-10 day period (Mar 28-29). More importantly all extended models prolong this active cold-biased U.S. storm pattern devoid of sustained above average warmth (or Southeastern ridging), adding confidence to continued delay of full establishment of spring-like temperatures across most of the Eastern U.S. into mid April.

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