Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]


Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]


October 21 - Long Range Summary

Warming underway across the Eastern half of the U.S. is occurring faster than any model previously forecast. Temperatures are still rising and near certain to peak 20° above average or more across the Great Lakes (80s) and Northeast (upper 70s) during the 1st half of this week before a brief shot of cooler air arrives Oct 23-24. However models continue to back-off intensity and duration of late week cooling across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. (seasonal temperatures at best) with little to no penetration of cooler air farther south into the core of near record heat entrenched across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley (upper 80s-90s). This persistently hot Southern airmass will spread back northward into the Great Lakes and Northeast at the end of this week (Oct 25-26), to likely again peak warmer than models forecast through the end of October (15°-20° above average or more). In the West colder air spreading into interior areas produced high elevation snow in the Rockies and interrupted prolonged record heat which persisted several weeks into mid October. However, Western cooling arrived weaker than models forecast (slightly-moderately below average), and fast warming already underway has latest forecasts shifting hotter back near record levels across the Southwest (mid-upper 90s) for several consecutive days this week. Modestly cool (and wet conditions) lingering in the Pacific Northwest are now forecast to expand across more of the West during the 11-15 day period, but extended range models have been performing poorly and appear to be overestimating magnitude and duration of Western cooling. Regardless of intensity details periodic Western cooling is a warm signal across the Eastern U.S. adding confidence to greater resilience to unseasonably mild temperatures east of the Rockies through November totally devoid of significant below average temperatures.


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