Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
While significantly cold air by mid fall standards remains absent throughout North America a slow moving wet storm intensifying near the East Coast (nor’easter) ensures a seasonably cold start to the coming week across the Northeast and mid Atlantic region (Oct 13 and 14) featuring below average daytime highs in the 50s. At the same time mild overnight lows (7°-10° above average) will skew mean temperatures near seasonal levels before another lobe of a summerlike warm airmass entrenched in the central U.S. shifts into the East midweek. Amplified flow aloft featuring a reloading cool and wet Western trough and unseasonably hot and dry central U.S. ridge centered on Texas ensures a surge of modestly cold Canadian air will dive through Northeast by Wednesday , Oct 15 producing a brief 2-day period of slightly below average temperatures (both daytime highs and overnight lows). However, recent model consensus substantially backed off negative NAO intensity setting the stage for faster large scale flow de-amplification by next weekend (Oct 18-19) allowing seasonably warm air to settle back into the Northeast for several days to predominate week 2 (Oct 19-25). Significant pattern change next week also ensures moderation to summer-level heat entrenched in the central U.S. during t the 1st half of October, and notably drier and milder Western conditions closer to seasonal temperatures. Faster flow progression has latest extended range models deepening a somewhat cooler trough into the Eastern U.S. in late October (11-15 day period) at uncertain depth (strength), but better consensus in high latitudes prolongs absence of cold continental air transport into North America consistent with recent La Niña development. This adds confidence to a relatively mild initial half of November across the U.S. featuring predominance of near coast to coast above average temperatures, with main exception of portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southeast where periodic rainfall is considered most likely to limit temperatures closer to seasonal late fall levels.
