Natural Gas Desk, “El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy”

El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]


Press Release 12-21-09

Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]


March 17 - Long Range Summary

Severe thunderstorms with tornados across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. this past weekend included snow and winter-like cold in their wake observed deep into the central U.S. limiting daytime high temperatures near Chicago to the mid 30s. The next vigorous Pacific storm which moved onto the West Coast today is also near certain to produce blizzard conditions and 10° below average temperatures or greater deep into the central U.S. once it ejects east of the Rockies Wednesday, followed by sharp cooling across the Midwest and East at the end of this workweek (Mar 20-21). Spring- like volatility and the mild nature of Pacific flow flooding the U.S. between storms virtually ensure above average mean temperatures will continue to predominate several day periods across the Eastern half of the U.S. through the next full week. However markedly colder air is near certain to settle into the majority of the Midwest and East by Mar 26 in a more sustained manner, while the West warms (and dries). Greatly improved model forecast consensus completing full atmospheric pattern reversal early in the final week of March is the closest yet to long standing 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts, but government models appear far too fast to breakdown the colder Eastern pattern before March is over . Longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain most stable; maintaining unseasonably cold air reinforcement substantially longer into the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. throughout early April, including brief intervals of 10°-20° below average temperatures and late season snow across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Even typically warm biased CFSv2 model forecasts valid during the 1st week of April flipped temperatures several degrees below average, adding confidence to prolonged interruption to spring across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. until milder air can fully return in a sustained manner in late April.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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