Midsummer-level heat in place across the north central U.S. this past weekend (low-mid 90s) shifted eastward in a progressively modifying form bringing several days of relief from the unseasonably cold and wet start to May, while modest rain cooled conditions persist farther south in the Southeast, lower Ohio Valley, and mid Atlantic region. However, temperatures […]
Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.
Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]
El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]
Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]
Midsummer-level heat in place across the north central U.S. this past weekend (low-mid 90s) shifted eastward in a progressively modifying form bringing several days of relief from the unseasonably cold and wet start to May, while modest rain cooled conditions persist farther south in the Southeast, lower Ohio Valley, and mid Atlantic region. However, temperatures in the 80s forecast to peak across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast (10°-15° above average) late this workweek (May 15-16) are of increased confidence to represent the warmest conditions of not only the remainder of May, but also the initial 10-days of June or more. Colder and wetter model shifts across the northern U.S. starting by next weekend (May 17-18) range between seasonal temperatures to double-digit below average anomalies (highs mainly 50s-60s) virtually ensuring a markedly cooler start to summer than observed last year across the Great Lakes and Northeast. That is not the case across the South, especially in Texas where record setting triple digit heat (~20° above average) certain to briefly peak midweek (May 14) across central and northern areas (including Dallas) will gradually moderate to seasonal temperatures or slightly below average (low 80s) early next week (May 19-20), before far more prolonged summerlike heat resumes to predominate the final 10-days of May. Triple digit heat presently underway across the Southwest (~10° above average) will cool more quickly during the 1st half of this week between seasonal and slightly below average temperatures for a longer period into next week (May 19-23). However, all extended range models re-establish summerlike heat across the majority of the West and Plains early in the final week of May which longer range 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts maintain through June 10.
