As the next arctic airmass of the extended January series surged into the north-central U.S. late this past weekend models shifted markedly colder throughout the entire eastern half of the country to the Gulf and East Coasts in forecasts valid the 1st half of this week, ensuring yet another several day period of 15°-20° below […]
Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.
Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]
El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]
Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]
As the next arctic airmass of the extended January series surged into the north-central U.S. late this past weekend models shifted markedly colder throughout the entire eastern half of the country to the Gulf and East Coasts in forecasts valid the 1st half of this week, ensuring yet another several day period of 15°-20° below average temperatures anomalies at the climatological peak of winter. Little time will be available for moderation before an even more intense arctic airmass (coldest of winter) dives between the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend (Jan 18-19). This is the 1st arctic air outbreak of January to enter the U.S. west of the Rockies which ensures fast reversal of above average warmth observed along the West Coast during the 1st half of winter. Westward displaced entry of arctic air typically sets stage for progressive modification (weakening) as this cold air spreads east of the Rockies to the Gulf and East Coasts during the 3rd full week of the month (Jan 19-25). However, in this case models significantly limit temperature moderation with ECMWF 11-15 day forecasts coldest across the East, especially the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast where additional snow is likely. Longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble continue to interpret this as the final multiday period of below average temperatures across the central and Eastern U.S. extending into the start of the final week of January, before arctic air steadily contracts into western Canada late month consistent with recent development of La Niña adding confidence to a relatively mild start to February.
