Long Range Summary

Canadian air draining east of the Rockies ensured a noticeably cool start to this week by early summer standards all the way from the southern Plains through the entire Midwest to the northern mid Atlantic region and Northeast.  Now that Eastern pattern change completed model forecasts agree Monday will represent the coldest day of the […]


Forecast Summary

Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.


Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada…

Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]


Natural Gas Desk, “El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy”

El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]


Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]


Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]


Press Release 12-21-09

Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]


June 10 - Long Range Summary

Canadian air draining east of the Rockies ensured a noticeably cool start to this week by early summer standards all the way from the southern Plains through the entire Midwest to the northern mid Atlantic region and Northeast.  Now that Eastern pattern change completed model forecasts agree Monday will represent the coldest day of the next 2-weeks. Late week warming east of the Rockies will be gradual and limited in duration before near record heat reloading across most of the West by midweek (with exception of the cooler Pacific Northwest) spreads east of the Rockies during the 6-10 day period to peak in the low-mid 90s across the Great Lakes and Northeast for multiple days next week. Longer range forecasts indicate the core of greatest heat will shift westward between the Upper Midwest and northern Plains during the 11-15 day period. However, significantly drier conditions accompanying next week’s substantial surge of heat east of the Rockies is part of far more stable summerlike flow anticipated to preclude return of unseasonably cold air through the rest of June. Models focus lingering less widespread rain into the Upper Midwest and along the Gulf Coast which may periodically cool these regions near seasonal temperatures but longer range forecast confidence is increased drier conditions overall compared to spring and the start to June, coupled with persistent summerlike low amplitude flow aloft, set the stage for progressive warming of near sustained above average temperatures through July.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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