A very hot airmass generating record setting triple digit heat in the northern and central Plains this past weekend and widespread 90s across the Midwest (including Chicago) has all recent model runs shifting hotter along the Eastern Seaboard in forecasts valid during the 1st half of this week: potentially reaching 100° in Washington DC (15° […]
Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.
Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]
El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]
Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]
A very hot airmass generating record setting triple digit heat in the northern and central Plains this past weekend and widespread 90s across the Midwest (including Chicago) has all recent model runs shifting hotter along the Eastern Seaboard in forecasts valid during the 1st half of this week: potentially reaching 100° in Washington DC (15° above average), and low-mid 90s in NYC. Very high humidity accompanying double-digit above average temperatures across the Midwest and East will likely prompt widespread NWS Excessive Heat Warnings, but extreme heat indices will not last through the end of the workweek as unseasonably cold air currently in the interior Northwest (~20° below average) spreads east of the Rockies all the way to the East Coast in a substantially modified form by Thursday (near seasonal). Longer range forecasts valid early September are erratic across the Midwest and East as recent modeling shifts wetter and cooler to widely varying degree. However, coldest and wettest Eastern forecasts are considered overreaction to strong Western ridge rebuilding and associated double-digit above average temperatures forecast along portions of the West Coast early this coming workweek. Near term modeling along the Gulf Coast and most of Texas is considered educational in that wetter conditions starting Tuesday are near certain to break intense heat observed to predominate August, but latest temperature forecasts remain slightly-moderately above average (primarily mid-upper 90s) across most of the Deep South with exception of the immediate Gulf Coast. Limited impact of largely scattered and intermittent convective precipitation is why summer temperatures observed to date across the entire Southwestern U.S. verified above average despite brief periods of above average monsoon rainfall. The Southeast coast is most at risk to represent a cooler exception (near seasonal) as models allude to heavier tropical rainfall during the 1st week of September and any additional rainfall will add to current soil saturation. Eastern forecasts have been cooled somewhat relative to prior MWA September forecasts in response to lower heights exhibited in recent modeling downstream of stronger Western ridging, but relatively mild slightly-moderately above average temperatures remain anticipated to predominate nearly all of the U.S. through early and mid fall.
