Frigid temperatures 15° below average or colder observed across the Northeast this past weekend (with additional snow) while portions of the Southern U.S. warmed near record levels (70s-80s) represent sharp north-south temperature contrast that is a recipe for wet February conditions across the vast majority of the U.S. More importantly colder shifting model forecasts look […]
Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.
Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]
El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]
Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]
Frigid temperatures 15° below average or colder observed across the Northeast this past weekend (with additional snow) while portions of the Southern U.S. warmed near record levels (70s-80s) represent sharp north-south temperature contrast that is a recipe for wet February conditions across the vast majority of the U.S. More importantly colder shifting model forecasts look nothing like forecasts generated all last week. Improved model alignment includes markedly greater southern expansion of fresh arctic air currently settling into the northwestern quadrant of the U.S. all the way into northern Texas by late this weekend (Feb 9), while snow and ice forecast east of the Rockies expands to the greatest coverage of winter. Potential return of negative NAO styled Atlantic blocking is less certain but appears increasingly likely midmonth adding support to latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which spread arctic air deepest into the Midwest and East during the 3rd week of February. Increased snow coverage east of the Rockies ensures limited modification (weakening) of arctic air at a time climatological temperature rise will be accelerating, each of which suggest cold air will again flood the Southeast in a more intense form than models indicate albeit more briefly than observed in January. The Desert Southwest appears least prone to periods of midwinter-level cold air through the end of winter, while below average temperatures likely linger longest across the northern half of the U.S. into early March similar to coldest La Niña analogs (including 2018).
