New and Improved 30 day Global Forecasts

MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements

May 13 - Long Range Summary

Similar to early May another full week lies ahead of above average precipitation across the majority of the Eastern half of the U.S. cooling daytime high temperatures the greatest, with the Upper Midwest forecast to cool most sharply (10° below average or more) Tuesday. Overnight lows east of the Rockies still remain warmer, especially across the South from eastern Texas into the Southeast where most frequent clouds and rainfall largely maintain 10°-15° above average minimum temperatures. However, across the West early stages of spring-like pattern change suggest lighter snow lingering in the northern-central Rockies this week marks gradual end to late seasona winter-like conditions Expanding Western warmth moderates U.S. temperature contrast almost ensuring decreased severe weather potential east of the Rockies.  Recent model forecasts shifted markedly warmer in Florida this week signaling the 1st extended period of mid 90° heat and excessive dewpoints (70s-low 80s) generating triple digit heat indices during both 1-5 day and 6-10 day periods. In contrast recent model consensus limits areal extent and duration of triple digit heat building across the southwest quadrant of the U.S. this week compared to hotter for longer forecasts generated last week. However, Southwestern moderation is part of lower heights forecast between the West and northern Plains which teleconnect to resilient downstream ridging, adding confidence to establishment of near sustained above average Eastern U.S. temperatures in late May featuring more sustained 80s across the Northeast on track to lead to a significantly warmer start to summer across the Midwest and East than observed in 2023.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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