Dave Melita
Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
April 29 - Long Range Summary
Warm air advancing east of the Appalachians late this past weekend is the start of progressive temperature rise near certain to briefly peak at the hottest levels yet this year by the end of this workweek including summer-level low 80s as far north as central New York State and New England (~15° above average). Portions of the interior mid Atlantic region to northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey may briefly reach 90° Monday, while the majority of the Midwest and South remain less intensely hot under clouds and intermittent rain extending ahead of a series of relatively cold Pacific disturbances translating through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies at approximate 24-36 hour intervals (still generating snow in high elevations of the West). Sharp west-east temperature contrast will fuel several more days of rain with severe thunderstorms across portions of the Plains and Midwest, but all models agree the repetitive amplified large scale pattern will begin to subside late this workweek. Early stages of pattern de-amplification are certain to direct seasonably cool air into the Plains (3°-6° below average) Thursday-Friday, while greatest below average temperatures in the Northwest begin to moderate. Less intense cooling reaching the Midwest and East during 6-10 day and 11-15 day periods appear near seasonal temperatures at best, but will effectively ending sharp temperature contrast across the U.S. Extended range models will continue to struggle with difficult to resolve spring-like wet disturbances embedded within fast low amplitude flow. However, at this point it is unlikely isolated and variable areas of convective rain will significantly alter longterm drought conditions in place across the central U.S. which are increasingly important to temperatures as summer approaches. Expansive soil moisture deficits remain a seasonably warm-biased signal which combined with low amplitude flow favor greatest magnitude (moderate) above average temperature anomalies in the north central U.S. which the 30-day MWA ensemble maintains into the end of May.
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