New and Improved Forecasts
MWA updated its proprietary 30-day global weather forecast ensemble to the MPAS model (Model Prediction Across Scales), which was collaboratively developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the climate modeling group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (COSIM). MWA modeling staff selected the latest update (Version 5) of this unique research model for conversion to an operational forecast platform based on several key features distinguishing MPAS from all other weather forecast models. Initial verification analyses show the model is highly stable and more accurate than the GFS model at forecast time scales beyond day-5.
The model is comprised of individual simulation components specific to atmosphere, ocean, land ice, and sea ice employing a unique hexagonal grid system especially suitable for higher resolution applications over any geographic area. Model output available to standard subscriptions include 30 day global forecasts of upper atmosphere and surface meteorological parameters; displayed graphically (including 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation), as well as in numerical form for over 200 cities. Forecasts specific to any city or global region can be customized to greatly enhanced resolution to satisfy individual user requirements
30 Day Weather Forecast:
This weather forecast newsletter is prepared by MWA meteorologists 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, and is often very different and in some cases totally contrary to direct computer model output. Each forecast update summarizes primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. This format is designed to identify major trading opportunities in which markets may be moving in the wrong direction, based on government or private forecasts that are primarily repackaged computer model forecasts.
The format of the newsletter is designed to address a wide audience of traders and meteorologists. As such the broad based forecast presents a 30-day graphic in the 1st page, which depicts U.S. temperatures anomalies during the next 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day periods for easy comparison to computer models and other forecast providers. The rest of the document includes detailed discussion of the forecast basis with supporting weather maps.
90 Day Weather Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. The forecast horizon is a minimum if 90-days, but can extends as much as 180 days depending on predictability of specific atmospheric patterns.
Similar to the 30 day newsletter (MWA 30) seasonal forecast maps and primary forecast basis are presented in a straightforward format in the 1st page. Detailed assessment follows describing major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying until the next update is issued. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
April 29 - Long Range Summary
Warm air advancing east of the Appalachians late this past weekend is the start of progressive temperature rise near certain to briefly peak at the hottest levels yet this year by the end of this workweek including summer-level low 80s as far north as central New York State and New England (~15° above average). Portions of the interior mid Atlantic region to northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey may briefly reach 90° Monday, while the majority of the Midwest and South remain less intensely hot under clouds and intermittent rain extending ahead of a series of relatively cold Pacific disturbances translating through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies at approximate 24-36 hour intervals (still generating snow in high elevations of the West). Sharp west-east temperature contrast will fuel several more days of rain with severe thunderstorms across portions of the Plains and Midwest, but all models agree the repetitive amplified large scale pattern will begin to subside late this workweek. Early stages of pattern de-amplification are certain to direct seasonably cool air into the Plains (3°-6° below average) Thursday-Friday, while greatest below average temperatures in the Northwest begin to moderate. Less intense cooling reaching the Midwest and East during 6-10 day and 11-15 day periods appear near seasonal temperatures at best, but will effectively ending sharp temperature contrast across the U.S. Extended range models will continue to struggle with difficult to resolve spring-like wet disturbances embedded within fast low amplitude flow. However, at this point it is unlikely isolated and variable areas of convective rain will significantly alter longterm drought conditions in place across the central U.S. which are increasingly important to temperatures as summer approaches. Expansive soil moisture deficits remain a seasonably warm-biased signal which combined with low amplitude flow favor greatest magnitude (moderate) above average temperature anomalies in the north central U.S. which the 30-day MWA ensemble maintains into the end of May.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.