Melita Weather Associates
For more than a decade, the most accurate weather forecasts over any time scale have come from only one source, and that is the experienced Meteorologists that comprise Melita Weather Associates (MWA).
Below is just one of the large suite of computer generated meteorological forecasts generated by our proprietary 30 day ensemble model.
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Long Range Forecast Summary
September 12 Update: Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the country in late September to delay return of sustained above average warmth until closer to mid October.
For information on subscribing to or receiving a free 2 week trial of MWA 30 day and 90 day forecast newsletters, or our large suite of computer model upper air and surface forecast data out to 30 days please contact:
MWA does not simply repackage or reformat the same freely available weather forecast computer model output, or attempt to deliver that same consistently erroneous Government data to you a minute or 2 faster each day. There are plenty of so called “weather providers” out there to choose from made up primarily of computer programmers as opposed to experienced Meteorologists. More than one of or our world-renown Atmospheric Scientists have been conducting specialized research for more than 50 years.
The 3 lead Meteorologists comprising MWA are Dave Melita, Pete Stamus and Dr. John Snook. Together they bring a unique alliance of meteorological expertise to the table at an opportune time to enhance long range weather forecasts using a proprietary model based on the most sophisticated atmospheric computer model in the world developed over a span of decades at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado. The NCAR model is actually a group of 4 distinct stand alone models known as the Community Climate System 3.
The links that follow will describe aspects of the proprietary and innovative computer model that we have developed. We strongly believe its introduction into the operational forecast environment will forever change the process in which operational weather forecasts are prepared, and the manner in which energy and agricultural trading concerns utilize forecasts in their daily business.
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May 5 - Long Range Summary
Early stages of a blocky slow to change pattern across the U.S. developing late last present weekend prompted substantial model shifts in May forecasts. Forecast changes begin late this workweek (May 8-9) in both the Northeast (cooler) and West (hotter) after a pair wet and cool closed lows over the Ohio Valley and Southwest exit off the East Coast and weaken over the Southeast respectively. Instead of expanding a summerlike ridge currently sandwiched in between over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest eastward into the Northeast as most models forecast last week, all latest runs retrograde the core of unseasonably strong ridging westward generating several consecutive days of the hottest temperatures of the year (mid 100s) across the Southwest (11°-15° above average) into the middle of the 2nd full week of May. In response to increased pattern amplitude models converged to colder downstream solutions as an unseasonably cold Canadian closed low settles directly into the Northeast cooling temperatures 10°-15° below average into next weekend (May 10-11), while widespread rain-cooled conditions focus across he Southeast . Longer range forecasts valid the 11-15 day period are less aligned but deterministic models which recently performed best limit magnitude and duration of seasonably warm air reaching the Northeast early in the period ahead of yet another multiday cold air outbreak going into the 3rd full week of the month (May 18-19). Repetitive cool Canadian air reinforcement into the Northeast through late spring along with wetter forecasts across the Southeast set the stage for a relatively mild start to June across the majority of the Midwest and East (seasonal – slightly above average). In contrast expansive drought currently stretching from the Southwest to the northern-central Plains is unlikely to fully erode adding confidence to a hot start to summer across most of the western half of the U.S.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.