MWA 30 day Forecast:
The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.
Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.
Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.
MWA – 90 day Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
For more information contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
January 13 - Long Range Summary
As the next arctic airmass of the extended January series surged into the north-central U.S. late this past weekend models shifted markedly colder throughout the entire eastern half of the country to the Gulf and East Coasts in forecasts valid the 1st half of this week, ensuring yet another several day period of 15°-20° below average temperatures anomalies at the climatological peak of winter. Little time will be available for moderation before an even more intense arctic airmass (coldest of winter) dives between the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend (Jan 18-19). This is the 1st arctic air outbreak of January to enter the U.S. west of the Rockies which ensures fast reversal of above average warmth observed along the West Coast during the 1st half of winter. Westward displaced entry of arctic air typically sets stage for progressive modification (weakening) as this cold air spreads east of the Rockies to the Gulf and East Coasts during the 3rd full week of the month (Jan 19-25). However, in this case models significantly limit temperature moderation with ECMWF 11-15 day forecasts coldest across the East, especially the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic region, and Northeast where additional snow is likely. Longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble continue to interpret this as the final multiday period of below average temperatures across the central and Eastern U.S. extending into the start of the final week of January, before arctic air steadily contracts into western Canada late month consistent with recent development of La Niña adding confidence to a relatively mild start to February.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.