MWA 30 day Forecast:
The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.
Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.
Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.
MWA – 90 day Forecast:
This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.
For more information contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.
March 31 - Long Range Summary
Fundamental pattern change early this 1st week of April fully replaces last week’s record heat observed across most of the Western U.S. with well below average temperatures and substantial mountain snow measured in feet. Most of the Eastern half of the U.S. remains predominated by well above average temperatures, with exception of an increasing expanse across the northern tier including the Great Lakes and Northeast where periodic cold Canadian air reinforcement persists prompting NWS Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in place this past weekend to be extended into this week. Improved extended range model alignment increases confidence next weekend (Apr 5-6) marks onset of prolonged winter-like cold (and snow) spreading progressively deeper into the Eastern half of the U.S. through midmonth, including double-digit below average temperatures deep into the Southeastern quadrant of the U.S. Since extended range model forecasts only recently latched onto return of winter-like conditions east of the Rockies during the 2nd week of April, subsequent runs are likely to increase intensity, coverage, and duration of well below average temperatures and very late season snow. Latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts prolong winter-level cold air reinforcement deep into the Eastern U.S. into the start of the 3rd week of April (Apr 13-16) before the next milder pattern shift begins aloft. However late month temperature moderation at the surface is likely to be very slow, especially if snowcover extends deep into the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. All of this ensures April will verify markedly colder than March, potentially within the top-10 coldest on record east of the Rockies.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.