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MWA 30 day Forecast:

 

The Livewire Newsletter is prepared by Dave Melita 3 times per week on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. This unique newsletter presents a summary of Dave’s analysis of primary weather events expected to be of significance to the energy industry during the next 30 days, with an emphasis on forecasting substantial pattern changes that move markets. The newsletter has a several year proven track record for accuracy, and is routinely utilized by both energy traders and in-house Meteorologists due to its combination of concise straightforward weather summary, and more detailed atmospheric pattern and computer model analysis.

Each newsletter begins with a 1-2 page summary section which includes graphical temperature anomaly forecasts for the 1-5 day, 6-10 day, 11-15 day and 16-30 day forecast periods. This is followed by several additional pages comprising more in-depth atmospheric analysis that describes the fundamental basis of the forecast. Weather maps and computer model output included in this section identify reasons why a particular forecast might diverge from other government or private forecast entities, and helps to further identify trading opportunities.

Livewire Newsletter subscribers also have limited access of 3 times per week to Dave for further forecast consultation. In the near future, the format of this consultation is expected to be upgraded to a web-based forecast discussion.

 

MWA – 90 day Forecast:

 

This long range weather forecast newsletter is released once per month and includes detailed assessment of the main atmospheric indices of interest to seasonal weather conditions. Detailed assessment of major atmospheric features expected to drive weather conditions is provided in an understandable format that provides the reader with the necessary tools to continually monitor the degree to which the long range forecast is verifying. By describing the expected evolution of major atmospheric features expected to drive an upcoming season’s weather, the reader is equipped with the ability to most effectively utilize the forecast for trading decisions.

For more information contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.

May 5 - Long Range Summary

Early stages of a blocky slow to change pattern across the U.S. developing late last present weekend prompted substantial model shifts in May forecasts.  Forecast changes begin late this workweek (May 8-9) in both the Northeast (cooler) and West (hotter) after a pair wet and cool closed lows over the Ohio Valley and Southwest exit off the East Coast and weaken over the Southeast respectively. Instead of expanding a summerlike ridge currently sandwiched in between over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest eastward into the Northeast as most models forecast last week, all latest runs retrograde the core of unseasonably strong ridging westward generating several consecutive days of the hottest temperatures of the year (mid 100s) across the Southwest (11°-15° above average) into the middle of the 2nd full week of May. In response to increased pattern amplitude  models converged to colder downstream solutions as an unseasonably cold Canadian closed low settles directly into the Northeast cooling  temperatures 10°-15° below average into next weekend (May 10-11), while widespread rain-cooled conditions focus across he Southeast .  Longer range forecasts valid the 11-15 day period are less aligned but deterministic models which recently performed best limit magnitude and duration of seasonably warm air reaching the Northeast early in the period ahead of yet another multiday cold air outbreak going into the 3rd full week of the month (May 18-19). Repetitive cool Canadian air reinforcement into the Northeast through late spring along with wetter forecasts across the Southeast  set the stage for a relatively mild start to June across the majority of the Midwest and East (seasonal – slightly above average). In contrast expansive drought currently stretching from the Southwest to the northern-central Plains is unlikely to fully erode adding confidence to a hot start to summer across most of the western half of the U.S.

If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.

  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398