Frigid temperatures 15° below average or colder observed across the Northeast this past weekend (with additional snow) while portions of the Southern U.S. warmed near record levels (70s-80s) represent sharp north-south temperature contrast that is a recipe for wet February conditions across the vast majority of the U.S. More importantly colder shifting model forecasts look nothing like forecasts generated all last week.  Improved model alignment includes markedly greater southern expansion of fresh arctic air currently settling into the northwestern quadrant of the U.S. all the way into northern Texas by late this weekend (Feb 9), while snow and ice forecast east of the Rockies expands to the greatest coverage of winter. Potential return of negative NAO styled Atlantic blocking is less certain but appears increasingly likely midmonth adding support to latest 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which spread arctic air deepest into the Midwest and East during the 3^rd week of February. Increased snow coverage east of the Rockies ensures limited modification (weakening) of arctic air at a time climatological temperature rise will be accelerating, each of which suggest cold air will again flood the Southeast in a more intense form than models indicate albeit more briefly than observed in January. The Desert Southwest appears least prone to periods of midwinter-level cold air through the end of winter, while below average temperatures likely linger longest across the northern half of the U.S. into early March similar to coldest La Niña analogs (including 2018).