Mild temperatures by early winter standards across the vast majority of the U.S. during the 1st weekend of December represent early stages of a multi-week warming trend which recent model forecasts prolong deeper into late month. Even the Northeast which verified coolest in November is on track to experience only one additional modest cold air […]
Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.
Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]
El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]
Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]
Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]
Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]
Mild temperatures by early winter standards across the vast majority of the U.S. during the 1st weekend of December represent early stages of a multi-week warming trend which recent model forecasts prolong deeper into late month. Even the Northeast which verified coolest in November is on track to experience only one additional modest cold air outbreak (3°-6° below average) peaking Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures skyrocket more than 10° above average (50s) by next weekend (Dec 9-10). This initial surge of late week Eastern warmth is part of even warmer Southwestern (80s) to central U.S. (70s) midweek temperatures that latest model forecasts only briefly interrupt with seasonal level cooling next weekend, before warming back several degrees above average early the following week (Dec 11-12). This 2nd surge of western-central U.S. warmth in mid December was nonexistent in model runs all last week, and more importantly includes all of Western Canada where prior forecasts indicated onset of prolonged arctic air transport. Most extended range models still gradually shift colder across Western Canada but later in December at a much slower rate which delays significant U.S. cooling until the final week of the month at the earliest. Even then intensity of U.S. cooling between Christmas week and early January appears limited (mainly seasonal) by relatively mild split jet stream flow typical of El Niño.
