Long Range Summary

Winter-like arctic air in place across the entire Eastern half of the U.S. will linger longest over the Southeast into early Tuesday at near 20° below average intensity where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings remain in place. Meanwhile the central U.S. is already warming above average and this warmer airmass will reach  the Eastern U.S. midweek […]


Forecast Summary

Cold weekend ahead in the Midwest but computer models are latching onto only brief near seasonal cooling in the South and East followed by fast return of above average warmth to predominate the rest of October and early November.


Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada…

Winter-like cold air emanating from northern Canada is on the move through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, while weakening substantially as it spreads into the summer-like warm and humid air-mass lingering in the South and East. longer range models are latching onto another strong and extended cooling event across the eastern half of the […]


Natural Gas Desk, “El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy”

El Niño This: Winter’s Looking Nippy In an interview Last Week (Nat Gas Desk, 10/27), Andy Weissman made a passing reference to Weather Insight meteorologist Dave Melita as the guy he trusts most on the whole weather thing. No small claim for Weissman, who puts a lot of emphasis on weather fundamentals for his various […]


Reprinted from The Desk, Friday, October 26, 2007

Friday, October 26, 2007 Drilling, Demand, Dust, Storage, Weather and Other Meaningful Stuff Anybody notice that this week there seemed to be an extra share of bearish inputs from across the gas market as we head into what looks like a pretty tame Winter heating season? EIA comes out with a redo of sorts about […]


Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23

Societe Generale Investment Bank Publication December 2009 pg. 23 Buy optimised US Natgas Mar-10 call spread on likely very cold winter weather This option trade is highly sensitive to this winter’s weather outcome. Despite the lack of consensus among weather forecasters, two schools of thought have emerged: one expects a strengthening of this autumn’s El-Nino […]


Press Release 12-21-09

Press Release 12-21-09 Dave Melita, well known long range Meteorologist to the energy sector, has linked up with colleagues from Boulder, Colorado to launch Melita Weather Associates (MWA). This new forecast entity will continue to provide the same highly accurate 30- and 90-day weather forecasts that Dave has been issuing to clients for more than […]


March 20 - Long Range Summary

Winter-like arctic air in place across the entire Eastern half of the U.S. will linger longest over the Southeast into early Tuesday at near 20° below average intensity where NWS overnight Freeze Warnings remain in place. Meanwhile the central U.S. is already warming above average and this warmer airmass will reach  the Eastern U.S. midweek in milder southerly flow ahead of the next series of closely spaced Pacific storms lined up to move onto the West Coast at 36-48 hour intervals. The lead Western storm forecast to eject east of the Rockies midweek and the East Saturday will not tap into cold air nearly as intense as 20°-30° below average temperatures observed last week. However, very cold air by spring standards remains available over snow covered Canada to be tapped by the parade of coast to coast tracking storms to frequently cool temperatures across most of the Eastern half of the U.S. to at least moderately (7°-10°) below average levels starting during the latter half of this week. Several additional rounds of late season snow are also forecast across most of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. including a potential significant winter storm in the interior Northeast at the end of the 6-10 day period (Mar 28-29). More importantly all extended models prolong this active cold-biased U.S. storm pattern devoid of sustained above average warmth (or Southeastern ridging), adding confidence to continued delay of full establishment of spring-like temperatures across most of the Eastern U.S. into mid April.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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