MWA is the only private weather forecast company in the world which has developed an operational 30-day weather forecast computer model.

The proprietary MWA Ensemble competed in 2010 is a global spectral model based on decades of research performed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.

Before MWA only the largest governmental weather forecast entities invested the resources necessary to develop and operate long-range dynamic numerical models. To this day the longest operational forecasts generated by these only extend out 15 days.

The 30 day forecast horizon of the MWA makes it ideal in identification of the timing and nature of important atmospheric pattern changes.

Computer generated forecasts are updated twice per day, 7 days per week, with all meteorological parameters displayed graphically; at the surface, and several upper level altitudes commonly utilized in weather forecasting.

Surface graphics include easy to understand 5 day composites of temperature anomaly and precipitation. Numerical surface parameters are also available in tabular form for over 200 North American cities.

Worldwide forecasts are generated for 6 additional continents. For clients interested in utilizing direct MWA ensemble numerical output to initialize in-house energy demand or pricing models comma delimited files are available.

September 13 - Long Range Summary

This week begins with an extended series of notably cool and wet Pacific storms entering the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile greatest U.S. heat lingers farther south in the Desert Southwest (107°-112°), but is spreading eastward in a less extreme form generating summerlike 90s from the central Plains to the mid Atlantic region. Near seasonal temperatures in place across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. are more prone to midweek warming than prior model forecasts indicated; peaking in the mid 80s in the Dakotas, to low 80s in the Northeast. This warmer model shift east of the Rockies is largely driven by impacts to large scale flow generated by potentially 2 areas of tropical development approaching the U.S. One already formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning (Tropical Storm Nicholas), while the 2nd area of disturbed weather is near of the Bahamas. The former is certain to generate heavy rain along the Texas Gulf Coast early this week (Monday and Tuesday), while models are uncertain how close the latter potential tropical depression or storm passes along the East Coast late week. Several inches of tropical rain appear to be the main threat with each system, but far less certain impacts to large scale flow have successive government model runs flipping wildly to the point recent forecasts are 180° opposed across the U.S. by day-10, and intermittent model runs significantly cool the Northeast during the 11-15 day period. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain consistent in limiting magnitude and duration of below average temperatures reaching the Northeast, and even the Northwest warms by late September giving way to milder above average temperatures across the vast majority of the U.S. to predominate October. .

 


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

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