Dave Melita

Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.

As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.

Contact us at: david@melitaweather.com.

September 16 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike heat and humidity are of high confidence to predominate the Eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of September, albeit with noticeable fluctuation in geographic focus and intensity. This week starts much as last week ended with record and near record high temperatures across most of the South from Texas to Georgia (upper 90s-low 100s), while the Northwest remains coolest. However, more Southern heat is already spreading northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and all models agree mid 80s will predominate the entire week in Chicago (11°-15° above average). New England and portions of upstate New York will remain seasonal to slightly cool for most of this workweek, and some of this cooler air will drain southward along the Eastern Seaboard bringing temporary midweek relief to portions of the Southeast (1-2 days of near seasonal temperatures). However, by the end of this workweek an extended period of extreme heat is forecast to return to the East, this time to include the Northeast in the form of mid-upper 80s for several consecutive days persisting into the start of the following week (Sep 23). After that models differ substantially in timing and strength of cooler lobes of air shifting across the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. through the final week of September, while greater forecast consensus exists in resumption of above average warmth across the West. Some degree of Eastern cooling is likely by the 11-15 day period, but prior operational model forecasts of widespread or prolonged below average temperatures during the 1st half of September failed to verify. This adds confidence to warmer 30-day MWA Ensemble forecasts which maintain very mild conditions across most of the U.S. well into the 1st half of October to further delay the start to fall. However, at the same time latest forecasts also indicate major high latitude pattern change in Canada setting the stage for a cold 2nd half of October across the Eastern U.S.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398