Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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August 10 - Long Range Summary
This week begins with the warmest temperatures of August surging into the Northeast (upper 80s-low 90s) along with increasing humidity, which will likely prompt NWS to issue Heat Advisories in lower elevations of the region valid Monday and Tuesday. However, at the same time the next relatively cool (and wet) Canadian airmass of the early August series will be settling into the Plains and Midwest, albeit in a weaker form (near seasonal) than several degree below average temperatures observed between the Rockies and Appalachians all last week. This noticeably cooler air is certain to advance farther east to the East Coast by midweek; effectively ending extreme early week heat, while initiating wetter conditions across much of the Midwest and East. More importantly far greater model forecast consensus exists in prolonged duration of milder seasonal – slightly below average temperatures across the Midwest and East persisting into the final week of August along with wet conditions. A cooler end to summer and start to September across the Midwest and East is consistent with hotter Western forecasts, which recent model runs have latched onto as prolonged return of near 115° heat by the end of this workweek across the Desert Southwest (including Phoenix) along with very dry conditions.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.