Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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April 16 - Long Range Summary
This week begins winter-like with record setting cold temperatures deep into the Plains and Midwest (20°-30° below average), and near 15° below average temperatures from the Northeast into the Southeast. Latest model runs have shifted colder through day-10 to the point of forecasting 2-3 day periods of similar magnitude below average temperatures as several additional large Pacific storms track from coast to coast across the U.S. tapping into lingering cold air in Canada. However, all longer range models signal varying degree of warming across the Eastern U.S. during the 11-15 day period. This milder model shift is consistent with long standing 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which effectively end connection to significant cold air by the end of April; setting the stage for a far milder start to May characterized by warm-biased temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, and gradual moderation across the Northeast to near seasonal late spring warmth.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.