Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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April 6 - Long Range Summary
A slow moving storm bringing significant rain and mountain snow to California early this week sets the stage for another strong warm-up east of the Rockies. However, above average temperatures peaking during the 1st half of this coming week are near certain to be the final unseasonably warm conditions across the Midwest, South, and East until late April. This is because all extended range models complete full pattern reversal late this week; establishing warm conditions across the West, and an extended period of polar air reinforcement deep into the Eastern half of the country. Only magnitude of temperature anomalies remain of model debate, with European model forecasts more extreme than GFS forecasts. The colder forecast scenario which overwhelms the Northeast with more than 10° below average temperatures late this week, followed by at least 2 additional winter-like cold air outbreaks during the following week of Apr 13, is most consistent with the coldest aligned atmospheric teleconnections since November. This significantly cold mid April scenario is also similar to longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble which gradually resume near sustained above average warmth across the Eastern U.S. during the final week of the month to extend into May.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.