Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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January 14 - Long Range Summary
This week starts cold along most of the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of the weekend winter storm which produced significant snow and ice across the Midwest and mid Atlantic region. Most of this new snow will melt this week as the mild Pacific flow pattern of early January persists for several more days focusing well above average warmth from the Plains (including 70s in Texas) to the Southeast. However, all models have aligned to major and prolonged pattern change fully replacing mild maritime flow with reinforcing arctic air outbreaks extending deep into the eastern half of the U.S. by next weekend (Jan 18-19). Models are also trending more extreme with intensity of arctic air during the climatologically coldest period of winter (final week of January through 1st week of February). However, latest government model forecasts are still not considered cold enough as 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts are more aggressive to develop blocked flow. Regardless of magnitude of cold air, below average temperatures are of increased confidence to dominate most of February across the Midwest, South, and East.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.