Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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September 24 - Long Range Summary
Near seasonal high temperatures in the 60s across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. last weekend, while summerlike 90s persist across the Southeast are a harbinger of a sharpening airmass contrast set to predominate the next 10-15 days. One more surge of unseasonably warm air across the Great Lakes and Northeast early this week is forecast to peak Wednesday near 10° above average (70s-low 80s), at the same time the coldest air since last spring dives into the northern Rockies and northern Plains cooling highs mainly into the 50s. However, greatly improved model consensus substantially limits eastward and southern expansion of cold air into the Midwest, South, and East as lobes of reinforcing cold Canadian air focus more directly into the north-central U.S. into next week leaving both the Southeast and Southwest in persistent above average warmth. Much of this stagnant and blocked pattern is related to colder model forecasts in the Northwest U.S. However all long range model forecasts limit duration of sharp temperature contrasts, signaling return of near coast to coast moderate above average warmth by the end of the 11-15 day period setting the stage for a mild October overall.
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