Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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February 11 - Long Range Summary
Recent weekend cold high temperatures more than 25° below average across nearly all of Texas and 15° below average across the Southeast will not last as another strong warm-up is on tap across the South this week. However, less warming will make it into the northeastern quadrant of the country in an active storm parade emanating from the West, including significant snow and ice across the interior Northeast Tuesday. What has changed most in recent model forecasts are significantly colder 6-15 day trends indicating eastward expansion of arctic air from the current frigid core (30°-40° below average) between the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest, into the East in a less extreme but still significantly below average form. Only timing details separate recent extended range model forecasts in onset of a very cold end to February in the Midwest, South and East. Return of sustained cold to the East later than MWA previously forecast is a sign winter-like conditions are likely to persist into mid March, before the still anticipated strong temperature reversal to seasonably warm conditions by late March ushers in a much milder mid-late spring than observed last year.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.