Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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January 15 - Long Range Summary
Early week arctic air reinforcement surging due southward to the Gulf Coast and Florida is stronger in latest modeling (25° below average), along with a swath of snow and ice extending from central Texas late Monday through the northern Gulf Coast states Tuesday. Unlike early January the Northeast will be spared the core of coldest air this week, but very frigid air arriving last weekend (15° below average) will be slow to moderate through the majority of the workweek. It is late week into the start of next weekend (Jan 19-20) when fundamental pattern change marks onset of near sustained well above average temperatures in the Midwest and East to predominate the remainder of the month into early February, and a cooler and stormier West. However, recent extended range model forecasts are colder in the Plains as active Western storms periodically eject east of the Rockies, to briefly cool temperatures below average in the northern Plains, and near average in Texas. Longer range confidence in return of cold air to the Eastern U.S. to predominate mid-late February is increased as the 30-day MWA ensemble is latching onto re-establishment of arctic air across Canada earlier in the month.
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