Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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August 13 - Long Range Summary
Record setting triple digit high temperatures observed in the Dakotas this past weekend are part of widespread above average heat across the majority of the northern half of the U.S. and nearly the entire West, which have characterized all of August to date and are forecast to predominate the next 10-days. Models are far less certain in precipitation details (and associated seasonably cool temperatures) generated by weak disturbances slowly moving between the central – southern Plains and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However, rainfall observed in most of Texas has underperformed model predictions, and all latest guidance is faster to re-establish dry conditions and moderate warmth (mid-upper 90s) by midweek. While some precipitation may return to the Deep South next weekend (Aug 18-19) and intermittent Eastern rainfall will linger into the 6-10 day period, by the 11-15 day period more long range models are latching onto establishment of far more sustained dry and warm conditions across the Midwest, South and East in a midsummer-like pattern on track to predominate late August and most of not all of September.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.