Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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October 19 - Long Range Summary
Reinforcing lobes of unseasonably cold air (near 15° below average) focusing through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains this week are certain to modify (weaken) quickly while spreading farther south and east into a very warm airmass building along the Eastern Seaboard. Improved model consensus peaks temperatures across the majority of the South and East 15° above average or more this workweek followed by minor moderation to less extreme warmth (3°-6° above average) to predominate the 6-10 day period. The southwest quadrant of the U.S. from interior California to Texas will also be very warm by late October standards for most of this week. However, the final blast of cold air of the October series is forecast in latest modeling to reach most of the West after focusing along a more westward trajectory through the northern intermountain region next weekend (Oct 24-25) at significantly greater intensity near 30° below average. Even this extreme winter-like arctic airmass will progressively modify upon ejecting east of the Rockies early next week (Oct 26-27) generating 2-3 days of only moderate cooling (7°-10° below average) in most of the South and East during the 11-15 day period. Once this final lobe of cold air exits through the Northeast by early in the 16-20 day period longer range guidance establishes much more widespread and sustained above average temperatures across the U.S. to predominate November.
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