Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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November 12 - Long Range Summary
Frigid week ahead across the Eastern half of the country; as the coldest temperatures of November 15°-20° below average peak in the Plains and Midwest early week (Monday-Tuesday), and near 15° below average in the East midweek (Wednesday-Thursday). Latest models are colder for longer especially in the Northeast as more widespread interior snow than previously forecast accompanies a coastal storm on Tuesday, and is followed by development of another storm along the East Coast next weekend (Nov 17-18). However, at the same time fundamental late week pattern change is certain to be underway, flooding the western two thirds of the U.S. with mild Pacific air by the end of the 6-10 day period. All models agree this warm airmass will continue to advance eastward during the 11-15 day period, though some runs delay full arrival of above average temperatures into the Northeast and northern md Atlantic region until later in November. Regardless of timing details in full establishment of coast to coast above average warmth, contraction of polar air into northern Canada during Thanksgiving week in concert with low amplitude flow virtually ensures a mild end to November and 1st half of December across the U.S. However, the 30-day MWA ensemble is beginning to sense arrival of true arctic air to southwestern Canada in early December, setting the stage for a colder 2nd half of the month across the majority of the U.S.
If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.