Dave Melita was among the first Meteorologists to offer detailed weather forecasts to energy trading groups in the early 1990’s. Up to that point many of the largest trading houses still relied primarily on NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. Since then Dave has been producing long range weather forecasts that consistently outperform conventional government and private weather forecast services. His energy weather newsletters are written in a detailed yet understandable format that describe complex atmospheric processes in a clear straightforward manner. His long range forecast accuracy and ability to concisely identify key weather elements of importance to the energy industry have attracted many of the largest trading shops in the business as long term subscribers.
As a working Meteorologist since obtaining a Masters Degree in Meteorology in 1982 he has held public and private sector assignments in both atmospheric research and operational meteorology. Among his former coworkers are several of the most renown and accomplished atmospheric research scientists in the world with whom he maintains a professional working relationship. This collaboration has proved invaluable in enabling Dave to consistently identify and assess key atmospheric features responsible for driving weather conditions on a seasonal time scale. The result is a well known proven track record in which Dave has correctly forecast the degree and manner which important atmospheric signals, such as El Niño and La Niña, will impact an upcoming season months in advance.
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November 18 - Long Range Summary
Major pattern change cutting off transport of arctic air into the U.S. and Canada ensures the 2nd half of November will be nowhere near as cold as its frigid start. Substantial warming near 15° above average across the central U.S. early this week is forecast by all models to spread eastward in less extreme but still very noticeable form (7°-10° above average) by midweek, to fully reverse the cold start to the week across the Midwest and Northeast. However, this week’s marked warm-up to above average temperatures across the Eastern half of the country has not stopped many longer range model forecasts from flipping significantly colder during the final week of November. Part of the recent spike in forecast volatility is driven by model uncertainty associated with the 1st wet storm of the season to move through Southern California and the Southwestern U.S. this week. This beneficial Southwestern precipitation is near certain to spread farther east through Texas and the Southeast during the latter half of this week, but the tropical Pacific origin of this disturbance is far from cold suggesting temperatures in most of these areas only briefly cools to seasonably cold levels. Greater forecast spread exists within colder northern jet streamflow, with some model runs indicating strong winter storm development in the Midwest and East early next week (Nov 25-26). Until additional model runs converge to this stormier Eastern scenario cold late November forecasts are considered overdone. Even if aggressive late November winter storm forecasts were to verify temperatures can only temporarily cool moderately below average due to absence of arctic air. Mild December temperatures overall remain the going early winter forecast.
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