Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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December 2 - Long Range Summary

A winter storm underway across the Northeast will be notable for its prolonged duration into Tuesday; generating widespread heavy snow (1-2 feet), and several weaker disturbances lined up to follow reinforcing below average temperatures across the Northeast (coldest over fresh snowcover) for more than 1 full week. However, even the coldest air surging deep into the Southeast early this week (Monday and Tuesday) is not of arctic origin, and will quickly warm back to above average temperatures by midweek along with the entire central U.S. Pacific storms moving through the West this week are also devoid of extreme cold air and noticeably milder than observed last week. While extended range model forecasts are uncertain in timing details at some point by late next week (after Dec 10) both the West and Northeast will also noticeably warm, as a mild pattern by early winter standards becomes fully established across the U.S. and southern Canada. Seasonal temperatures between the northern Rockies and northern Plains appear to be main exceptions to near coast to coast above average warmth forecast to predominate mid-late December. The north-central U.S. also remains forecast by the 30-day MWA ensemble to be the initial focus of returning arctic air during the final days of December (after Christmas), marking early stages of a frigid Eastern half of the U.S. by early January.


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