Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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September 24 - Long Range Summary

Near seasonal high temperatures in the 60s across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. last weekend, while summerlike 90s persist across the Southeast are a harbinger of a sharpening airmass contrast set to predominate the next 10-15 days. One more surge of unseasonably warm air across the Great Lakes and Northeast early this week is forecast to peak Wednesday near 10° above average (70s-low 80s), at the same time the coldest air since last spring dives into the northern Rockies and northern Plains cooling highs mainly into the 50s. However, greatly improved model consensus substantially limits eastward and southern expansion of cold air into the Midwest, South, and East as lobes of reinforcing cold Canadian air focus more directly into the north-central U.S. into next week leaving both the Southeast and Southwest in persistent above average warmth. Much of this stagnant and blocked pattern is related to colder model forecasts in the Northwest U.S. However all long range model forecasts limit duration of sharp temperature contrasts, signaling return of near coast to coast moderate above average warmth by the end of the 11-15 day period setting the stage for a mild October overall.


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