Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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December 11 - Long Range Summary

Cold temperatures extending deep into the Southeast early this week in the wake of the recent historic southern snow event are certain to be followed by an even colder arctic airmass focusing farther north across the northeastern quadrant of the country by Wednesday at near 15° below average intensity. Models begin to diverge late week with intensity of warmer air spreading out of the Western half of the country into the East through early next week, but even the warmest 6-10 day forecasts shift markedly colder by the 11-15 day period. The coldest forecasts of the European model and 30-day MWA ensemble re-establish a similar amplified pattern as currently in place setting the stage for a frigid Christmas week across the Midwest and East, and are accepted as indication of an even colder start to January than previously anticipated.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
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