Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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October 19 - Long Range Summary

Reinforcing lobes of unseasonably cold air (near 15° below average) focusing through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains this week are certain to modify (weaken) quickly while spreading farther south and east into a very warm airmass building along the Eastern Seaboard. Improved model consensus peaks temperatures across the majority of the South and East 15° above average or more this workweek followed by minor moderation to less extreme warmth (3°-6° above average) to predominate the 6-10 day period. The southwest quadrant of the U.S. from interior California to Texas will also be very warm by late October standards for most of this week. However, the final blast of cold air of the October series is forecast in latest modeling to reach most of the West after focusing along a more westward trajectory through the northern intermountain region next weekend (Oct 24-25) at significantly greater intensity near 30° below average. Even this extreme winter-like arctic airmass will progressively modify upon ejecting east of the Rockies early next week (Oct 26-27) generating 2-3 days of only moderate cooling (7°-10° below average) in most of the South and East during the 11-15 day period. Once this final lobe of cold air exits through the Northeast by early in the 16-20 day period longer range guidance establishes much more widespread and sustained above average temperatures across the U.S. to predominate November.

 


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