Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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January 14 - Long Range Summary

This week starts cold along most of the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of the weekend winter storm which produced significant snow and ice across the Midwest and mid Atlantic region. Most of this new snow will melt this week as the mild Pacific flow pattern of early January persists for several more days focusing well above average warmth from the Plains (including 70s in Texas) to the Southeast. However, all models have aligned to major and prolonged pattern change fully replacing mild maritime flow with reinforcing arctic air outbreaks extending deep into the eastern half of the U.S. by next weekend (Jan 18-19). Models are also trending more extreme with intensity of arctic air during the climatologically coldest period of winter (final week of January through 1st week of February). However, latest government model forecasts are still not considered cold enough as 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts are more aggressive to develop blocked flow. Regardless of magnitude of cold air, below average temperatures are of increased confidence to dominate most of February across the Midwest, South, and East.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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