It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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November 12 - Long Range Summary
Frigid week ahead across the Eastern half of the country; as the coldest temperatures of November 15°-20° below average peak in the Plains and Midwest early week (Monday-Tuesday), and near 15° below average in the East midweek (Wednesday-Thursday). Latest models are colder for longer especially in the Northeast as more widespread interior snow than previously forecast accompanies a coastal storm on Tuesday, and is followed by development of another storm along the East Coast next weekend (Nov 17-18). However, at the same time fundamental late week pattern change is certain to be underway, flooding the western two thirds of the U.S. with mild Pacific air by the end of the 6-10 day period. All models agree this warm airmass will continue to advance eastward during the 11-15 day period, though some runs delay full arrival of above average temperatures into the Northeast and northern md Atlantic region until later in November. Regardless of timing details in full establishment of coast to coast above average warmth, contraction of polar air into northern Canada during Thanksgiving week in concert with low amplitude flow virtually ensures a mild end to November and 1st half of December across the U.S. However, the 30-day MWA ensemble is beginning to sense arrival of true arctic air to southwestern Canada in early December, setting the stage for a colder 2nd half of the month across the majority of the U.S.
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