Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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September 13 - Long Range Summary

This week begins with an extended series of notably cool and wet Pacific storms entering the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile greatest U.S. heat lingers farther south in the Desert Southwest (107°-112°), but is spreading eastward in a less extreme form generating summerlike 90s from the central Plains to the mid Atlantic region. Near seasonal temperatures in place across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. are more prone to midweek warming than prior model forecasts indicated; peaking in the mid 80s in the Dakotas, to low 80s in the Northeast. This warmer model shift east of the Rockies is largely driven by impacts to large scale flow generated by potentially 2 areas of tropical development approaching the U.S. One already formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning (Tropical Storm Nicholas), while the 2nd area of disturbed weather is near of the Bahamas. The former is certain to generate heavy rain along the Texas Gulf Coast early this week (Monday and Tuesday), while models are uncertain how close the latter potential tropical depression or storm passes along the East Coast late week. Several inches of tropical rain appear to be the main threat with each system, but far less certain impacts to large scale flow have successive government model runs flipping wildly to the point recent forecasts are 180° opposed across the U.S. by day-10, and intermittent model runs significantly cool the Northeast during the 11-15 day period. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain consistent in limiting magnitude and duration of below average temperatures reaching the Northeast, and even the Northwest warms by late September giving way to milder above average temperatures across the vast majority of the U.S. to predominate October. .

 


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