Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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May 14 - Long Range Summary

Near record heat began early May in the Southwest before progressively spreading eastward last week through the Plains and Midwest into the mid Atlantic region and Southeast, where it will linger into the start of this 2nd full week of May.  Moderate cooling in the Southeast starting Tuesday (still several degrees above average) accompanies clouds and rain advancing northward from Florida. What is more important is precipitation will become the only source of cooling going forward through the remainder of May as actual cold air retreats farther north into northeastern Canada. Fast weakening observed to a large Pacific storm once it entered the West late last week is a harbinger of a repetitive mild late spring pattern overall featuring mostly scattered convective type rainfall across the majority of the Plains, Midwest, and East favoring continued predominance of above average warmth. Warmer and drier May conditions which are the exact opposite to the end to spring observed last year signal a much hotter start to summer 2018.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
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