It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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February 11 - Long Range Summary
Recent weekend cold high temperatures more than 25° below average across nearly all of Texas and 15° below average across the Southeast will not last as another strong warm-up is on tap across the South this week. However, less warming will make it into the northeastern quadrant of the country in an active storm parade emanating from the West, including significant snow and ice across the interior Northeast Tuesday. What has changed most in recent model forecasts are significantly colder 6-15 day trends indicating eastward expansion of arctic air from the current frigid core (30°-40° below average) between the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest, into the East in a less extreme but still significantly below average form. Only timing details separate recent extended range model forecasts in onset of a very cold end to February in the Midwest, South and East. Return of sustained cold to the East later than MWA previously forecast is a sign winter-like conditions are likely to persist into mid March, before the still anticipated strong temperature reversal to seasonably warm conditions by late March ushers in a much milder mid-late spring than observed last year.
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