Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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September 16 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike heat and humidity are of high confidence to predominate the Eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of September, albeit with noticeable fluctuation in geographic focus and intensity. This week starts much as last week ended with record and near record high temperatures across most of the South from Texas to Georgia (upper 90s-low 100s), while the Northwest remains coolest. However, more Southern heat is already spreading northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and all models agree mid 80s will predominate the entire week in Chicago (11°-15° above average). New England and portions of upstate New York will remain seasonal to slightly cool for most of this workweek, and some of this cooler air will drain southward along the Eastern Seaboard bringing temporary midweek relief to portions of the Southeast (1-2 days of near seasonal temperatures). However, by the end of this workweek an extended period of extreme heat is forecast to return to the East, this time to include the Northeast in the form of mid-upper 80s for several consecutive days persisting into the start of the following week (Sep 23). After that models differ substantially in timing and strength of cooler lobes of air shifting across the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. through the final week of September, while greater forecast consensus exists in resumption of above average warmth across the West. Some degree of Eastern cooling is likely by the 11-15 day period, but prior operational model forecasts of widespread or prolonged below average temperatures during the 1st half of September failed to verify. This adds confidence to warmer 30-day MWA Ensemble forecasts which maintain very mild conditions across most of the U.S. well into the 1st half of October to further delay the start to fall. However, at the same time latest forecasts also indicate major high latitude pattern change in Canada setting the stage for a cold 2nd half of October across the Eastern U.S.


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