Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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April 6 - Long Range Summary

A slow moving storm bringing significant rain and mountain snow to California early this week sets the stage for another strong warm-up east of the Rockies. However, above average temperatures peaking during the 1st half of this coming week are near certain to be the final unseasonably warm conditions across the Midwest, South, and East until late April. This is because all extended range models complete full pattern reversal late this week; establishing warm conditions across the West, and an extended period of polar air reinforcement deep into the Eastern half of the country. Only magnitude of temperature anomalies remain of model debate, with European model forecasts more extreme than GFS forecasts. The colder forecast scenario which overwhelms the Northeast with more than 10° below average temperatures late this week, followed by at least 2 additional winter-like cold air outbreaks during the following week of Apr 13, is most consistent with the coldest aligned atmospheric teleconnections since November.  This significantly cold mid April scenario is also similar to longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble which gradually resume near sustained above average warmth across the Eastern U.S. during the final week of the month to extend into May.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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