Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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April 15 - Long Range Summary

Seasonably cool start to this week across the majority of the Midwest and East will be brief, as 70s-80s building back into the Plains at the same time are part of the next very warm airmass by mid spring standards to spread eastward back into the Midwest and East midweek. Seasonably cool air will briefly return to the Eastern half of the country late this week as the series of coast to coast translating deep Pacific troughs with cooler air in their wake continue. However, strong warm-ups observed ahead of each recent wet storm have already outweighed limited and brief cooling in their wake such that above average temperatures have predominated the 1st half of April across most of the U.S. More importantly nearly all 11-15 day model forecasts have aligned to significantly less temperature volatility nearly devoid of seasonably cool air in drier conditions, setting the stage for a much warmer end to April and start to May.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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