It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.
This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.
In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.
One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season. Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.
MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.
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August 10 - Long Range Summary
This week begins with the warmest temperatures of August surging into the Northeast (upper 80s-low 90s) along with increasing humidity, which will likely prompt NWS to issue Heat Advisories in lower elevations of the region valid Monday and Tuesday. However, at the same time the next relatively cool (and wet) Canadian airmass of the early August series will be settling into the Plains and Midwest, albeit in a weaker form (near seasonal) than several degree below average temperatures observed between the Rockies and Appalachians all last week. This noticeably cooler air is certain to advance farther east to the East Coast by midweek; effectively ending extreme early week heat, while initiating wetter conditions across much of the Midwest and East. More importantly far greater model forecast consensus exists in prolonged duration of milder seasonal – slightly below average temperatures across the Midwest and East persisting into the final week of August along with wet conditions. A cooler end to summer and start to September across the Midwest and East is consistent with hotter Western forecasts, which recent model runs have latched onto as prolonged return of near 115° heat by the end of this workweek across the Desert Southwest (including Phoenix) along with very dry conditions.
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