Observed Weather:

It is clear winter 2013/14 is well on track to verify as the coldest in 2 decades.
The final week of January will be even colder than its frigid start.
We have strong signals February will be at least moderately cold. February will also manifest a much stormier winter pattern coast to coast.

Melita Forecast:

This extreme cold winter scenario was the consistent long range forecast provided by Melita Weather Associates (MWA) since late summer 2013.

NWS Forecast:

In contrast all other known weather providers reiterated seasonal to warm winter forecasts well into November before changing to progressively colder outlooks.

Analysis:

One result of this colder than expected weather in the major population centers of the Eastern US has been the advance of commodities such as natural gas to levels unseen since 2010. While commodities forecasting is not our specialty, it is expected that continued cold weather will lead to a condition of lower natural gas volumes in storage as we move into the Summer cooling season.  Clients of Melita Weather Associates have had this information months ahead of traders relying on traditional weather sources.

The difference lies in decades of research MWA scientists conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  This research is the foundation of MWA’s ability  to accurately assess primary atmospheric processes affecting each season.

MWA atmospheric scientists have never missed a fundamental forecast regarding El Niño or La Niña development in 20 years of providing forecast services to the energy sector.

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June 17 - Long Range Summary

Transitional week ahead as last week’s record setting June heat across large areas of the West gradually erodes, and gives way to seasonal to below average temperatures by the end of the week. Western cooling will be slowest from interior California into the central Great Basin where triple digit heat (near 10° above average) will linger into midweek. Meanwhile noticeable heat and humidity gradually build northward through Texas (mid-upper 90s) and the Southeast (upper 80s-low 90s) especially during the latter half of the week as wet conditions begin to subside. All models continue each temperature trend through the 6-10 day period; cooling all of the West and northern Plains to seasonal levels or several degrees below average, while east of the Rockies above average warmth spreads northward to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Mainly pattern longevity separates recent extended range forecasts; with the European model far more prolonged with above average Northeastern heat into early July, while GFS runs shift the core of heat into the central U.S. at the expense of renewed Eastern cooling. However, warm (and drier) ECMWF 11-15 day Eastern forecasts are far more aligned with atmospheric teleconnection forecasts, setting the stage for a markedly warmer mid-late summer overall.


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