2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



December 2 - Long Range Summary

A winter storm underway across the Northeast will be notable for its prolonged duration into Tuesday; generating widespread heavy snow (1-2 feet), and several weaker disturbances lined up to follow reinforcing below average temperatures across the Northeast (coldest over fresh snowcover) for more than 1 full week. However, even the coldest air surging deep into the Southeast early this week (Monday and Tuesday) is not of arctic origin, and will quickly warm back to above average temperatures by midweek along with the entire central U.S. Pacific storms moving through the West this week are also devoid of extreme cold air and noticeably milder than observed last week. While extended range model forecasts are uncertain in timing details at some point by late next week (after Dec 10) both the West and Northeast will also noticeably warm, as a mild pattern by early winter standards becomes fully established across the U.S. and southern Canada. Seasonal temperatures between the northern Rockies and northern Plains appear to be main exceptions to near coast to coast above average warmth forecast to predominate mid-late December. The north-central U.S. also remains forecast by the 30-day MWA ensemble to be the initial focus of returning arctic air during the final days of December (after Christmas), marking early stages of a frigid Eastern half of the U.S. by early January.


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