2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



August 19 - Long Range Summary

The 1st half of this week is certain to feature the most widespread excessive heat and elevated humidity of summer nearly from coast to coast in which several new records are likely in the West, Plains, and East (mainly mid Atlantic region). This surge of heat will also represent the hottest temperatures of August for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast,  though these areas cool by Thursday for a 2-3 day period of seasonal to slightly below average temperatures. However, along the West Coast where models once indicated a cold end to the week, latest runs are totally opposite and indicative of early stages of development of a stable midsummer-like large scale pattern across North America and adjacent Ocean sectors. This virtually ensures resumption of above average heat in the Northeast next weekend (Aug 24-25) in a more sustained manner which extended range models are still struggling with.  Forecasts valid during the transition from late August to early September (11-15 day period) are considered too cold, albeit successive runs cannot settle on which areas between the Rockies and East Coast will be coldest.  In contrast 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts remain much warmer during this period and beyond, which is far more consistent with large scale atmospheric teleconnections favoring a summerlike warm majority of September from coast to coast.


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