2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



October 15 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike warmth which dominated the Midwest, East, and South during the 1st half of October is effectively over, except Florida where new heat records are likely this week. Winter-like cold air (20° below average or more) extending deep into the southern Plains (Texas) early week reaches the Northeast and mid Atlantic region midweek at less extreme intensity (5°-10° below average). While a 2nd reinforcing surge of seasonably cold air is forecast to focus more directly into the Great Lakes and Northeast by next weekend (Oct 20-21), all models agree above average warmth building across the West this week will spread into the same areas of the north-central U.S. and Canada which are currently coldest. The warmer consensus in government models virtually ensures the coming week of below average temperatures across the East and South is temporary, though full reversal back to above average warmth appears delayed to late in the 11-15 day period by precipitation. However, 30-day MWA ensemble forecasts which were 1st to sense eradication of arctic air from Canada re-establish widespread above average temperatures across the U.S. to dominate late fall.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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