2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



April 6 - Long Range Summary

A slow moving storm bringing significant rain and mountain snow to California early this week sets the stage for another strong warm-up east of the Rockies. However, above average temperatures peaking during the 1st half of this coming week are near certain to be the final unseasonably warm conditions across the Midwest, South, and East until late April. This is because all extended range models complete full pattern reversal late this week; establishing warm conditions across the West, and an extended period of polar air reinforcement deep into the Eastern half of the country. Only magnitude of temperature anomalies remain of model debate, with European model forecasts more extreme than GFS forecasts. The colder forecast scenario which overwhelms the Northeast with more than 10° below average temperatures late this week, followed by at least 2 additional winter-like cold air outbreaks during the following week of Apr 13, is most consistent with the coldest aligned atmospheric teleconnections since November.  This significantly cold mid April scenario is also similar to longer range forecasts of the 30-day MWA ensemble which gradually resume near sustained above average warmth across the Eastern U.S. during the final week of the month to extend into May.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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