2008 Forecast Verification Summary
Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.
Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007
Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.
Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008
Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification
Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”
Dave’s June Forecast
Observed June 2008
December 10 - Long Range Summary
Cold air lingers for most of this workweek across the mid Atlantic region and much of the Southeast in the wake of the recent historic snowstorm. Additional precipitation is on the way to these same regions by the end of the workweek into next weekend (Dec 15-16), but strong warming to above average temperatures already underway across the majority of the Plains and Midwest will gradually expand into the East ensuring most late week precipitation will remain rain. Above average temperatures and more rain than snow across the Eastern half of the U.S. are part of a prolonged mild pattern by early winter standards which all recent model forecasts extend into late December. However, as government models with 2-week forecast horizons extend into the final week of December all latest runs are latching onto early stages of the next fundamental pattern shift re-establishing arctic air nearby in southern Canada. Government models appear to fast to dislodge arctic air into the U.S. as the 30-day MWA ensemble continues to delay onset of sustained below average temperatures to the 1st week of January. More importantly the long range model continues to indicate this as a highly stable cold pattern in which arctic air focuses more directly southward through the Great Lakes and Northeast to predominate mid-late January.
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