2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



February 11 - Long Range Summary

Recent weekend cold high temperatures more than 25° below average across nearly all of Texas and 15° below average across the Southeast will not last as another strong warm-up is on tap across the South this week. However, less warming will make it into the northeastern quadrant of the country in an active storm parade emanating from the West, including significant snow and ice across the interior Northeast Tuesday. What has changed most in recent model forecasts are significantly colder 6-15 day trends indicating eastward expansion of arctic air from the current frigid core (30°-40° below average) between the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest, into the East in a less extreme but still significantly below average form. Only timing details separate recent extended range model forecasts in onset of a very cold end to February in the Midwest, South and East. Return of sustained cold to the East later than MWA previously forecast is a sign winter-like conditions are likely to persist into mid March, before the still anticipated strong temperature reversal to seasonably warm conditions by late March ushers in a much milder mid-late spring than observed last year.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
  • Contact Us

    Melita Weather Associates, 138 Northeast
    Circle Durango CO 81301

    david@melitaweather.com
    direct 970.385.8695
    fax 970.385.8398