2008 Forecast Verification Summary

Weather during Winter 2007 / 2008 and Summer 2008 have had largely unexpected Energy Sector implications to those not advised of Dave Melita’s accurate long range forecasts.

Winter 2007/08 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued October 2007

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

2008 Temperature Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Precipitation Anomaly Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

Winter 2007 / 08 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

winter_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

winter_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

At the end of winter of 2007/08 the largely unexpected low natural gas storage condition made the upcoming summer forecast all the more critical. The fundamental basis of Dave’s forecast issued May 2008 was that summer 2008 would average much more moderate than the excessive heat of the preceding summer 2007 in the major energy consuming areas of the Midwest and East.

Summer 2008 Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Issued May 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Temperature Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Precipitation Anomaly June to August 2008

Summer 2008 Mean Temperature and Precipitation Verification

summer_temperature_measured_anomaly_2008

summer_precipitation_measured_anomaly_2008

Among the listed primary forecast components issued in May was the following: “June is forecast to represent the greatest positive departures from average temperatures in the northern mid Atlantic and Northeast of the upcoming summer.”

Dave’s June Forecast

daves_june_temperature_forcast_anomaly_2008

Observed June 2008

daves_june_temperature_observed_anomaly_2008



September 16 - Long Range Summary

Summerlike heat and humidity are of high confidence to predominate the Eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of September, albeit with noticeable fluctuation in geographic focus and intensity. This week starts much as last week ended with record and near record high temperatures across most of the South from Texas to Georgia (upper 90s-low 100s), while the Northwest remains coolest. However, more Southern heat is already spreading northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and all models agree mid 80s will predominate the entire week in Chicago (11°-15° above average). New England and portions of upstate New York will remain seasonal to slightly cool for most of this workweek, and some of this cooler air will drain southward along the Eastern Seaboard bringing temporary midweek relief to portions of the Southeast (1-2 days of near seasonal temperatures). However, by the end of this workweek an extended period of extreme heat is forecast to return to the East, this time to include the Northeast in the form of mid-upper 80s for several consecutive days persisting into the start of the following week (Sep 23). After that models differ substantially in timing and strength of cooler lobes of air shifting across the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. through the final week of September, while greater forecast consensus exists in resumption of above average warmth across the West. Some degree of Eastern cooling is likely by the 11-15 day period, but prior operational model forecasts of widespread or prolonged below average temperatures during the 1st half of September failed to verify. This adds confidence to warmer 30-day MWA Ensemble forecasts which maintain very mild conditions across most of the U.S. well into the 1st half of October to further delay the start to fall. However, at the same time latest forecasts also indicate major high latitude pattern change in Canada setting the stage for a cold 2nd half of October across the Eastern U.S.


If your business or career depends on correctly predicting the weather, you can follow the pack or you can get ahead with MWA’s proprietary models and expert forecasts.
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